tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45155452628432486752024-03-12T21:27:42.360-04:00Crum-Bum BeatCurley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-71970693518366589102012-10-10T12:33:00.000-04:002012-10-10T12:33:04.405-04:002012 Sleeper Picks Revisited<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">The 2012 regular season is behind us, and it is time to look back and see what fools we were. Baseball has a way of making fools; this is precisely why so many fools are continually allowed to make a living writing and talking about the game, regardless of how unforgivable their sins. Leading up to Opening Day 2012, Dizzy and I made a few hair-brained sleeper picks, that is, players previously not thought too much about who were poised to shake the foundations of greatness in the game. We poured through the statistics, ignored the pundits on television, read the last page of The Book, and sought out the Old Man on the Hill, whose name changes with each season, all in hopes of securing some foresight into the coming season. After fours day of search, and two pairs each of shoes (they don't make 'em like they used to), we found him, boarded up in the attic room of a dilapidated cabin, peering out through one of those rounded windows that opens on a swivel. He used to rock back and forth on the porch stoop of the town's general store, smoking black cheroots and flicking pennies at children until the arthritis gobbled up his joints, putting an end to his trips to town. Legend says he won his fortune on a preseason bet on the 1969 Mets and paid for a hip-replacement picking the 2006 Cardinals. The man just intuits things.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">But upon our meeting the man presently named Cid, it became apparent that arthritis was not the only aflliction plaguing the old man, for his years had obviously taken their toll on his brain. Words slithered from his cracked lips, dropping to the wooden floor in their pools of drool. Foolish words about Baltimore and a rookie staff in Oakland and a 20-year dominating baseball and the reemergence of the knuckleball. We nodded, choked down his cheroots, and lumbered down the hill. We played a what-if game on the ride back and came up with our own conclusions. Here is how we did. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"> <a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_15.html"><b>Alex Gordon</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 151 games .303/.376/.502 140 OPS+ 23 HR 45 2B 7.1 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 161 games .294/.368/.455 125 OPS+ 14 HR 51 2B 6.2 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Gordon followed through on his #1 draft pick potential in 2011, a few years later than expected. But with his follow-up performance in 2012, it is clear that Gordon is star player in the American League. His slash line is down in every category, but he still put up superlative numbers for a disappointing team. While his homerun power dropped, he led the league in doubles (the 50 double plateau being my favorite of the arbitrary round number stats). He also continued his stellar defense and will likely win his second gold glove. After two consecutive seasons with 150+ games played, his injury-riddled past seems to be behind him. He will turn 29 this offseason and should have several good years ahead of him. Hopefully the rest of the touted young Royals will take the next step so folks outside of Kansas City can watch him play.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_15.html"><b>Pablo Sandoval</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 117 games .315/.357/.552 155 OPS+ 23 HR 26 2B 5.9 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 108 games .283/.342/.447 124 OPS+ 12 HR 25 2B 2.0 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Well, the Panda's biggest problem in his career is health. This may or may not have something to do with his impressive girth (doesn't seem to hinder Prince Fielder), but staying on the field has been an issue. The primary caveat to Sandoval having a breakout offensive season was his health, which was worse in 2012. He played in nine fewer games and put up inferior stats in every category. He is still a plus offensive player; one just can't count on any consistency. The Panda's defense is still above average (somehow), but his inability to play 140+ games limits his value tremendously. One can only hope he shows up to Spring Training 2013 In The Best Shape Of His Life.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_11.html"><b>Matt Garza</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 31 GS 198 INN 3.32 ERA 118 ERA+ 9 K/9 0.6 HR/9 2.9 BB/9 2.5 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 18 GS 103.2 INN 3.91 ERA 101 ERA+ 8.3 K/9 1.3 HR/9 2.8 BB/9 1.0 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Ugh. Injuries stymied Garza's 2012 as well as an increase in homeruns. The injuries though. They not only cut Garza's year short, they prevented him from being traded to a better team (and thus not bringing much needed young talent back to Chicago). When healthy, Garza still showed he can be a top-tier pitcher, but his upside no longer looks so lovely. He turns 29 in the off-season and now has a worrisome injury history. He has a lot to pitch for next season, both a new home and a new contract, so hopefully whatever unholy fibers keep a pitcher's arm tethered do their job and both Garza and the Cubs can yield something positive in 2013.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012.html"><b>Dan Haren</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 34 GS 238.1 INN 3.17 ERA 119 ERA+ 7.3 K/9 0.8 HR/9 1.2 BB/9 4.0 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 30 GS 176.2 INN 4.33 ERA 87 ERA+ 7.2 K/9 1.4 HR/9 1.9 BB/9 -0.6 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> "My money is on Haren to emerge as the true Ace by mid-season." Yup, I typed that. </span>Yikes. A miserable year for Haren, his worst as a starting pitcher. His strikeout rate was alarmingly low in 2011, raising concerns about a potential regression, but his low homerun rate and walk rate coupled with his pedigree was enough to make him seem a safe pick to have a big 2012, especially with the Angels offense backing him up. Unfortunately, Dan Haren regressed, and regressed, and regressed some more. Some of this can certainly be attributed to back problems, which cost him some starts and affected him in several others. His K-rate remained roughly the same, but he gave more up long balls and walks. Just a dismal year all around. For some silly reason, I have long had a soft spot for the Angels, so I am hoping Haren bounces back, Weaver continues to be pretty damn good, Greinke signs, and Mike Trout does was Mike Trout does.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_614.html"><b>Jay Bruce</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 157 games .256/.341/.474 118 OPS+ 32 HR 27 2B 1.8 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 155 games .252/.327/.514 118 OPS+ 34 HR 35 2B 1.4 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Jay Bruce put up nearly identical numbers in 2011 and 2012, not the huge improvement predicted by us. However, there are only good signs for the young right fielder moving forward. He posted a slugging percentage 40 points higher after belting two more homers and eight more doubles, cementing his status as a middle-of-the-order threat. His drop in on-base percentage is troubling, but hopefully some of that Votto magic wears off in the years to come. Bruce turns 26 in April and still has enormous upside. He will likely never be a high batting average hitter, but if he improves his plate discipline, he will not be prone to the intense cold streaks that have thus far plagued his young career. It is not overly optimistic to think the best is yet to come. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_14.html"><b>Melky Cabrera</b></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2011: 155 games .305/.339/.470 121 OPS+ 18 HR 44 2B 4.1 bWAR</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">2012: 113 games .346/.390/.516 158 OPS+ 11 HR 25 2B 4.7 bWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">While most believed the Melkman's 2011 season would be the outlier in his career, Dizzy had the foresight to see the best was yet to come. Cabrera technically won the batting title in 2012, and he was the Giants' best hitter before Posey decided to become the Man in the second half. Of course, one cannot accurately predict bad behavior and deplorable decisions. The Melkman pissed oh so dirty, thus flinging his superlative season in the mud and depriving the Giants of a much needed bat going into the postseason. Who knows what Melky will do from here, but he certainly succeeded in transforming a good story into a tired and disappointing one. He did play a key role in helping the Giants win their second West title in three years, and at the very least, he saved a mystery team a lot of money in the years to come.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">So...6 sleeper picks...3 up, 3 down. Not bad. 50% is pretty darn good when it comes to baseball forecasting. We should have listened to the Old Man on the Hill. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-11633953165827217572012-06-04T20:49:00.000-04:002012-06-04T20:49:36.548-04:00Goodbye, Pedro Borbon<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">"Now pinch-hitting for Pedro Borbon..."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">An integral member of the Big Red Machine, perhaps the greatest ballclub every assembled, has died for the second and final time. No pitcher made more appearances from 1970-1978, an accomplishment even more impressive in light of how the game has evolved. A rock in the bullpen, Borbon gave the Redlegs the necessary stability to win three pennants. Pedro Borbon was inducted into the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame (one of the finest in baseball) in 2010. His death, while unfortunate as all deaths are, gives Reds' fans and baseball fans alike an opportunity to remember the accomplishments of a great career in our greatest game. Borbon's numbers will never be erased, and better yet, he lives forever in more memories than most</span> <span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">can dare to dream.</span><br />
<br />Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-38614947673866504282012-05-29T22:44:00.001-04:002012-05-29T22:58:54.594-04:00This is a Picture of Great American Ballpark<div class="separator"style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMlF97I7EexENVco9xPg3uh50ERBggysi6oGKlyqO_EtcJKCths0iX4anlML5c-CT2XqPjX99xXjl2o2R2N0MIZSkOlsi6eUhulJp75ls9dV_v4elug_WCb0hWZZGr4rqAL1MDUD12dKuI/s640/blogger-image--93217904.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMlF97I7EexENVco9xPg3uh50ERBggysi6oGKlyqO_EtcJKCths0iX4anlML5c-CT2XqPjX99xXjl2o2R2N0MIZSkOlsi6eUhulJp75ls9dV_v4elug_WCb0hWZZGr4rqAL1MDUD12dKuI/s640/blogger-image--93217904.jpg" /></a></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-12321236928697295532012-05-18T20:35:00.002-04:002012-05-18T20:36:02.201-04:00So Long, Mr. Wood. It's Been Fun.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Kerry Wood was a good Cub. His many years and accomplishments will be remembered fondly by all Cubs fans and baseball fans in general. Baseball players, as we know, die twice. The first when the game passes them by, the last when life does. He performed admirably in his baseball life, and millions of fans thank him for it. May the continuance of his real life play out as grand. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">If you wish to read more of this Cub fan's appreciation for Wood, check out this <a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/01/kerry-wood-post-modern-mr-cub.html">previous</a> post. </span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-51951883611026937452012-05-04T14:12:00.001-04:002012-05-04T14:12:43.530-04:00"Speed Provides the One Genuinely Modern Pleasure."<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-small;">It's that damn Hamilton! He's so hot right now!</span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The legend of Billy Hamilton is growing. He is off to an insane start this season, swiping bags at a record pace for the Bakersfield Blaze. Tales of his speed on the basepaths have been spoken about in hushed tones since the Reds drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2009 amateur draft. Hamilton was a three-sport star athlete in high school, playing baseball, basketball and football. He turned down a scholarship to play wide receiver at Mississippi State, deciding to give his attention to the better sport, with a little help from a $600K signing bonus. After getting his feet wet in the Gulf Coast League (low level rookie league) at age 18, he had a solid year in advanced rookie ball in Billings, Montana (.318/.383/.456 with 48 SB in 64 games). But it was last year that Hamilton really began to turn heads when he stole 103 bases in 135 games at low A Dayton. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I had the opportunity to see him play in Dayton last season, and seeing him beat out an infield single on a routine grounder was jaw-dropping. He has a second gear that has to be seen in person to truly appreciate. In the small sample size of the one game I saw him play in, his defense at shortstop looked a bit shaky, but many young shortstops go through a fair amount of growing pains. Hamilton's speed range and speed allow him to get to balls that most infielders could only dream of getting to, but he needs to make better decisions on throws. Billy Doran recounted a story of Hamilton's incredible range during a spring training game last year; </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">“We were playing on this field the other day. The left fielder just lost a ball,” Doran said. “Billy took off. We were all like, ‘what’s he doing?’ He caught the ball over his shoulder, about 10 feet from warning track.” To clarify, he is describing a shortstop making a play 10 feet from the warning track in the outfield gap. That is the stuff of legend. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">His line in Dayton last year (.278/.340/.360) was dragged down a bit due to the fact that he was learning to switch hit. The Reds organization wanted to get Hamilton hitting from the left side, to shorten his time from the plate to first base. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Outside of Matt Kemp, few players are off to a better start in professional baseball this season than Billy the Quick. Hamilton has 31 steals in only 26 games right now. He is wreaking absolute havoc on the basepaths, and his exploits led the Bako Blaze to an 11-game winning streak. So far this season, Hamilton has more individual steals than half of the teams in MiLB have collectively. He is clearly getting into pitchers heads, as there have been three balks while he has been on the basepaths, and he has already advanced 7 bases due to wild pitches. In a game two weeks ago, Hamilton scored the winning run on a sacrifice fly that was caught by the second baseman. As Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus points out, so far this season when Hamilton has hit the ball to an infielder and the ball is fielded cleanly, he still reaches first base nearly 40 percent of the time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Prospect guru Kevin Goldstein reported earlier this season that scouts have noticed a change in Hamilton's plate approach this season that is very conducive to a high batting average. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hamilton also seems to have a better idea of the strike zone this year, as his K-rate has gone down while his walk rate has increased.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> The California League, where Bakersfield plays, is notorious for inflating offensive production, and Hamilton's .382/.458/.559 (helped by a crazy .456 BABIP) line is clearly not sustainable, but the Cali league tends to increase power numbers, not contact/on-base numbers. If he keeps this up, Billy looks to see a call-up to AA Pensacola, sooner rather than later.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">It is going to be interesting to see what direction the Reds organization takes regarding Hamilton. He is currently at number three on the organizational depth chart at short behind the Reds rookie SS Zack Cozart, and Didi Gregorius in AA (who turned heads in Spring Training this year). Hamilton has played some 2B in his professional career, but the Reds just locked Brandon Phillips down with a (probably foolish) long-term deal and have a legit 2B prospect in AA named Henry Rodriguez. Recently, there have been rumors of moving Hamilton to center field in the future, where the Reds could have a spot for him once he is ready for the Show. This is a bit of a risky proposition, as you would like to have a little more pop in the outfield than Billy is likely to develop. Another possibility is for the Reds to cash in on Hamilton when his stock is at it's highest. Considering the organizational depth the Reds have in regards to middle-infielders right now, Hamilton could be used to acquire a piece that could help the big club in the next few years (LF or 3B). Regardless of what the Reds ultimately decide to do with Hamilton, it'll be a hell of a lot of fun watching him play.</span></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-12577429436723158342012-04-30T21:51:00.001-04:002012-04-30T21:51:44.756-04:00The Braves are Really Good<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">One month of the season in the books, and some things are unfolding as expected. And of course, most are not. The Rangers are winning at a rate that far exceeds their capabilities. The Angels are losing as a similar pace. The AL East is backwards. The pot stirrers on ESPN are already attempting to blow hot air against the sails that currently buoy the Orioles atop the standings. My memory ain't so good, but I do have recollections of very bad teams starting out the season strong, only to have their lack of depth and consistency expose them for the cellar dwellers that they are by the end of May. The Tigers are mediocre at the moment. The Cardinals are playing great baseball sans Pujols and La Russa and Duncan. The Dodgers are just plain silly. The Cubs are providing the stability that enables us all to stay rooted at this early juncture of the season. But what surprises me, despite how unsurprising it is, would have to be the success of the Atlanta Braves. I thought they would be good, but they may just be better than we all thought. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves entered the season with a roster as full of question marks as it was talent. Would Jason Heyward take the next step? Freddie Freeman? Would Prado get back to his 2010 form and stay healthy? Will Chipper stay healthy? Will Uggla be more consistent? Hansen? Will two of the young pitching prospects emerge to their full potential? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">If all of these <i>ifs</i> came to fruition, the Braves would be damn near unstoppable. That could be said for several teams. Not all of the <i>ifs </i>ever come through. But so far in 2012, the Braves are rolling with a tank half empty.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves are 14-8 as of this writing. It looks as though they will finish the month 14-9. This is after opening the season with four straight losses. They are tied with St. Louis with the most runs scored in the National League. And nobody is hitting all that well. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves currently have but two hitters with an OBP over .350. And those would be Uggla and Bourn, players who don't stand to maintain that mark. McCann is struggling. Chipper, while productive, is day-to-day until he retires, and the revolving door of mediocrity that is Matt Diaz and Juan Francisco does not help much. Nobody has hit more than three home runs. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But the offense is spread out. McCann is the only player hitting below .260. So far the Braves are getting those timely hits, and their offense isn't even performing at full potential.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The pitching has been the key. Hansen still has a functioning right arm, and he's been good. Beachy has been incredible. Minor, solid. Delgado looks to improve. Hudson looks to be an above average major league pitcher, and for the sake of comfort, he brings the lazy Atlanta fans out to the ballpark. And their bullpen is still amazing, with Kris Medlen emerging as a dominant reliever to go along with Kimbrel, Venters, and O'Flaherty. And then there's the underrated Christhian Martinez. Let us not discuss Livan Hernandez. Manager Fredi Gonzales seems far too partial to 'ol Livan, and it will likely cost the Braves some games down the line (as with his eagerness to play Francisco too often and to sit Heyward against lefties). It is amazing how many good teams win in spite of their manager (lookin' at you Texas!)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves haven't lost a series since their opening 3-game sweep at the hands of the Mets. And they only seem to be getting warmed up. Injuries will likely happen, and the Braves aren't deep. But I expect Prado, Heyward, Freeman, and McCann to all improve. If nothing tragic occurs, we could be looking at a 100 win team. Perhaps that will fill every seat in Turner Field. But I wouldn't bet on it.</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-32825504374625438342012-04-20T12:07:00.001-04:002012-04-20T12:07:21.095-04:00Emo Joey Votto<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br /></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-48327929227239606102012-04-13T15:20:00.002-04:002012-04-13T15:20:53.193-04:00Oriole'd<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The weight of 189 losses in two seasons is heavy, man.</span></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-34602936779867498052012-03-29T15:02:00.000-04:002012-03-29T15:04:11.547-04:002012 Picks -- The Oracle Speaks True!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">With the 2012 season set to officially underway (despite it making less than zero sense to force SEA and OAK to play regular season games a in the midst of Spring Training), about the time the most productive Americans are pouring their first cup of coffee, it is time for our contribution to the annual nobody-knows-what-the-hell-they're-doing-but-let-us-just-pretend-we-do-anyways preseason prediction extravaganza! We've scoured the stats, examined our guts, and unearthed our local oracles to come up with our picks for each division, wild card, and playoff advancement. All leading to the inevitable 2012 Champion. Also, for good measure, we've taken the liberty of selecting each league's Cy Young and MVP. Most likely we will be wrong, but it's oh-so-much-fun to be wrong. Here we go!</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">American League</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">East</span></span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy : New York Yankees</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Curley : Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The AL East is a bit of a toss-up, with three very good teams and the Blue Jays promising a challenge. The Boston pitching situation has me doubting their chances, while all the creaky old knees in New York has me doubting theirs. The Yankees could very well win it, but I like the depth of pitching in Tampa to go along with a monster year from Evan Longoria. And it's difficult to bet against whatever magic Joe Maddon has been conjuring down there.</i> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Central</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy/Curley : Detroit Tigers</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The AL Central might be the easiest division to pick this year. The Tigers were a very good team last year, and the addition of Prince Fielder (although he is replacing another formidable hitter in Victor Martinez) should make them even better. Their rotation is solid, their bullpen is deep, and their lineup has pop. They may end up having the worst defense in the history of baseball if Jim Leyland sticks to his threat of starting Cabrera at 3B, but they have plenty of time to let that situation work itself out over the course of a long season. </i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>West</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy/Curley : Anaheim Angels</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The Angels' pitching and Mike Scoscia give them the edge over Texas. Josh Hamilton is waning, and I doubt Michael Young and Mike Napoli can replicate their success last season. And even if they can, Ron Washington won't manage it well. The wild card is Yu Darvish. He could leave us both scraping the egg from our faces.</i> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Wild Card(s)</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy : Texas Rangers/Boston Red Sox</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Curley : Texas Rangers/New York Yankees</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>When picking the Wild Cards in the AL, you might as well take five teams (ANA, BOS, NYY, TB, TEX), put their names in a hat, and pull four of them to see who makes the playoffs. The talent with these teams is very evenly matched, and it should be a blast watching the scenarios play out in the month of September. Any of those teams could end up winning their division, and the ones who do will likely have a bit of luck on their side. </i></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>LCS</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy : Angels over Yankees</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Curley : (Devil) Rays over Angels</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Cy Young</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy : David Price</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Curley : CC Sabathia</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Sabathia has been incredible since becoming a Yankee, even seeming a trifle underrated at times, at least in the Cy Young voting. I expect another superlative year from the big man, with his teammates providing the necessary help in garnering those pretty wins that Cy Young voters tend to favor.</i> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The other big southpaw in the AL East had a bit of an unlucky season last year (at least in terms of wins and losses), but looking beyond that, he has the best K/BB of his career while throwing more innings than he ever has. Run support is tough to come by in Tampa Bay, but voters have been more willing in recent years to look at the whole picture when it comes to Cy Young voting.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>MVP</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dizzy : Miguel Cabrera</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Curley : Evan Longoria</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Longoria has been a star since he came up, posting 26.9 fWAR in his four seasons. He missed significant time in 2011, and his BA took a serious hit due to a shockingly low .239 BABIP. That will likely level-out this season, pushing his average closer to the .270-.300 range he's accustomed too. And I am a believer in the age 26-28 peak for great players. It's time for Longoria to put it all together.</i> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>Miguel Cabrera has been one of the best hitters in the game since he broke in with the 2003 Marlins. Although it feels like he has been around forever, he's not yet 29 years old, is still in his prime, and he's coming off the best season of his career. </i></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">National League</span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">East</span></b></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Atlanta Braves</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Washington Nationals</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Like in the AL, the East is a mess of potential. The Phillies, Marlins, Braves, and Nationals all have a lot to be excited about headed in the season, but all four are riddled with 'ifs'. The Braves are thin offensively and are reliant on a core of pitching prospects. If a couple come through, and Tommy Hansen stays healthy, they could tear up the division. But prospects tend not to come through, and Hansen tends not to stay healthy. The Phillies have won it five years in a row, but they are old and hobbled. I don't know where their offense is going to come from to back up their Big Three. And I fear Father Time is finally paying a bit of attention to Halladay. The Marlins will make some noise and then flounder. I like the Nationals' pitching, and I anticipate a huge year from a healthy Ryan Zimmerman (that 'ol age 27 magic). In a dogfight, I like the energetic and youthful Nationals. Of course, if Strasburg's arm gets taken home by a fan along the third base line as a souvenir early in the season, I will likely look the fool.</i> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Central</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy/Curley : Cincinnati Reds</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Even without Ryan Madson, the Reds have a solid bullpen and an interesting rotation. Cueto has a lot to prove but has shown his stuff stands up to the best. Mat Latos will pair with Cueto at the top of the rotation, providing the Reds with two studs in the #1 and #2 spots. Votto will be great, and Bruce will come into his own. The main question marks for this team are whether Scott Rolen can stay healthy and contribute, and what can the Reds get from rookie SS Zack Cozart and rookie C Devin Mesoraco. The Central has three very weak teams that the Reds should beat up on. Of course, Dusty Baker is not impervious to foolishness, which could stymie the Redlegs. Aroldis Chapman should be in the rotation, if he is not, it's a sign of Baker regarding the trees rather than the forest.</i> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>West</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy/Curley : San Francisco Giants</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of nowhere to surprise everyone and win the NL West crown. Their 29 win improvement from 2010 to 2011 is something to marvel at, but one of the principles of Sabermetrics is regression to the mean. Teams that make that great of a leap in one season to the next tend to fall back the next year, a phenomenon Bill James dubbed the Plexiglass Principle. The Giants and D'backs should be in a close race, with little competition from the Dodgers, Padres and Rockies, with the Giants taking back the division by a few games.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Wild Card(s)</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Philadelphia Phillies/Milwaukee Brewers</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Their potentially anemic offense aside, Halladay and Hamels, and Lee should be enough to get the Phillies close. The Brewers still have a good team with good pitching. I expect Braun to respond to his unfortunate offseason by winning a lot of ballgames. If Aramis Ramirez stays healthy, and Zack Greinke maintains his composure, the Brew-Crew will be right there. The Cardinals have some bad knees in the lineup and some worrisome right arms in the rotation. If things break right for them, they'll find their way back to the postseason.</i> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>LCS</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Braves over Reds</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Reds over Giants</span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Cy Young</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Cole Hamels</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Madison Bumgarner</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Bumgarner's talent is off the charts, and he's got great command for a 22 year-old. Lincecum and Cain may be better right now, but Bumgarner's coming on strong. He has the benefit of pitching lower in the rotation, so he will likely avoid matchups against Kershaw, Kennedy, and other #1 starters. His stuff could get him to the Cy Young on its own, but the extra wins he'll potentially pick up facing off against #3 or 4 starters will give him the edge in the minds' of many Cy Young Voters. </i> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Cole Hamels would be an ace on most teams in baseball, yet he is stuck playing third fiddle to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee (not a bad problem to have). He had a big spike in GB% last season, lowering his BABIP, HR/9 and ERA. Like Bumgarner, Hamels will be matched up against the opposition's ace less frequently as the number three starter and should be able to garner more wins. Hamels is also pitching for a new contract this year, something that while not easy to quantify, can oftentimes be a positive factor. </i></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>MVP</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Justin Upton</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Joey Votto</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Picking the NL MVP in a now Pujols and Fielder-less league is a tricky task. </i></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Votto is simply one of the five best players in the game. Last year the league adjusted to his greatness, and the man still managed a .309/.416/.539 line. He admittedly got a little impatient being pitched around last season, a problem he will solve this year. Jay Bruce coming into his own will only help. </i> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Justin Upton is the type of five-tool player that baseball writer slobber over. His monster (6.7 fWAR) season last year was a huge contributor to the D'backs success in 2011. A couple more dingers and points on his batting average could have him hoisting the Kennesaw Mountain Landis trophy on Opening Day 2013.</i></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>World Series</b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Dizzy : Angels over Braves</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">Curley : Rays over Reds<b> </b></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>The playoff structure is such a mess. Making picks is just plain silly. Things break so many ways. The Rays pitching depth will get them there and lead them over the Reds, who will get there by sheer determination and Dusty Baker's decisions accidentally making him look like a genius. However, the Reds will falter in Tampa when they cannot refuel their mojo on Goetta Dogs and Skyline 5-ways. The Rays win their 1st World Series. Only 11,000 people show up. David Price gets torn apart in the local media for criticizing fan support. No premiere free agent ever signs a long-term deal to play there. Ever. 11,000 fans wonder why.</i><b> </b> </span><b><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></b> </span><b> </b><b> </b><b> </b> </span></span><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span></span></b> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Meanwhile, in another universe:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>The Braves make a surprise run and win the division, making it past the Reds in the NLCS. They go on to face the Angels in the World Series where the rotation of Weaver, Haren, Santana and Wilson proves to be too much. The signing of Albert Pujols pays off (for now), and Jerry Dipo looks like a genius (for now).</i></span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-16878588689986332012012-03-25T14:12:00.000-04:002012-03-25T14:12:33.600-04:00This is a Picture of Rollie Fingers and Dizzy Valance<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkEOOVhoVuHT95NOJn2q1FvtJolDh6P9ZxLKuk9P5Ghje0cST2OXdO_2ns7DVSSVTFz0MAfjlinh1y60izOydGLlxk_k3PUaqbX__5b1VFCwlzUnBen4fxp0V0exbENKb7i6wXmdr6U6to/s1600/rollie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkEOOVhoVuHT95NOJn2q1FvtJolDh6P9ZxLKuk9P5Ghje0cST2OXdO_2ns7DVSSVTFz0MAfjlinh1y60izOydGLlxk_k3PUaqbX__5b1VFCwlzUnBen4fxp0V0exbENKb7i6wXmdr6U6to/s1600/rollie.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hot mustache on mustache action.</span></td></tr>
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<br /></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-58199959989699571302012-03-22T23:47:00.000-04:002012-03-21T23:47:36.715-04:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFNg3hX1RpzLwpXKntxMMCqw3TqaKNkQ7Xo9VsOuZdXUrChLIULp6mNxg_gsNmII_evkAs87g66fA6Z36YOGKaKZG9bA7aULsgW_SZO9xg9ccub-9OHebeD-lWv2B1HovUzN2LeYg6akJs/s1600/JayBruce.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFNg3hX1RpzLwpXKntxMMCqw3TqaKNkQ7Xo9VsOuZdXUrChLIULp6mNxg_gsNmII_evkAs87g66fA6Z36YOGKaKZG9bA7aULsgW_SZO9xg9ccub-9OHebeD-lWv2B1HovUzN2LeYg6akJs/s1600/JayBruce.jpg" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">"And this one belongs to the Reds."</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The scene pictured above is one of the happiest moments of my Reds fandom, and also marks the first time since I played little league that I cried after a baseball game. After toiling through the lost decade that was the aughts (thanks to Jim Bowden's utter ineptitude as a GM), the 2010 Reds surprised almost everyone* and clinched the NL Central on a walk-off home run by Jay Bruce. This moment has been the high-water mark of the young right fielder's career thus far, but in my (slightly) biased opinion, the best is yet to come.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>* Both Curley Bender and I picked the Reds to take the NL Central crown in 2010.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">It's funny how expectations shape the narrative of a fanbase. Jay Bruce was drafted by the Reds 12th overall in the 2005 draft, he was the number one overall prospect in baseball in 2007, and burst on to the scene in 2008, capturing the hearts of Cincinnati baseball fans with his torrid first month in the majors. Joey Votto on the other hand, was a second round pick, that took 5 years to develop into a major leaguer. Votto has exceeded everyone's wildest expectations by winning an MVP and becoming one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball, while Bruce is unfairly maligned by much of the local media and fans for not living up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon him. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The 2011 season was a step back in the development of Jay Bruce. He was even streakier at the plate than he was in 2010, he seemed a step slower than normal, and his defense was not nearly the gold glove level it was the previous year. He started the year with a Juan Pierre-ian OPS of .687 in March and April, then turned it around and was the best player in all of baseball with a 1.140 OPS and 12 HRs in the month of May, before returning to sub-replacement level in June. Bruce finished the season on a more even keel, but the hot streaks he goes on, the ones where it seems impossible to get the guy out, are what give fans hope that one day he can get it together for an entire season and be the guy Reds fans dreamed on when he was a prospect. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">2011 Stats:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">3.3 fWAR, .256/.341/.474, .346 wOBA, 119 OPS+, .297 BABIP, 32 HR, 664 PA</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">This year will be Bruce's age 25 season, and his 5th overall in the majors. With the park he plays in, and the flashes of brilliance he has shown, it's not far fetched to imagine a 40 HR season being possible. Channeling my inner Joe Morgan, if Bruce can be consistently consistent, anything is possible. I would look for Bruce to regain some of his defensive prowess as well, due to the fact that he dropped 15 pounds this off-season and appears to be in much better shape than he was last year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As has been noted before, the Reds are all-in right now, trying to get back to the playoffs in order to scrape together enough pennies to afford a long term deal for Joey Votto. They have made some big splashes this off-season, but they need a breakout year from Jay Bruce to get them where they want to go. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Homer Projection:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">.290/.360/.550, 42 HRs</span></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-53595590700633924702012-03-21T21:15:00.002-04:002012-03-21T21:15:37.722-04:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFekHvfLZPvYy1Zz4EFfrTBFP10fINW4x_5J-_mWc9zNNZ7LMyvH-if9M0v3yKWDB4hYbypute88mYbqjXRnb4BRO2PZBRm3H_dU9luNwniA-GTjWQur_3E5ijF1c_9enKcGbJTD-_TOs/s1600/kungfupanda.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFekHvfLZPvYy1Zz4EFfrTBFP10fINW4x_5J-_mWc9zNNZ7LMyvH-if9M0v3yKWDB4hYbypute88mYbqjXRnb4BRO2PZBRm3H_dU9luNwniA-GTjWQur_3E5ijF1c_9enKcGbJTD-_TOs/s400/kungfupanda.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">You can't help but root for the husky athlete.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Pablo Sandoval may not be in <i>the best shape of his life</i>, or then again he might be. But I don't think it will matter much. It feels like Sandoval has been around the big leagues for a while, and more importantly, it feels like he's been a disappointment for almost as long. After bursting to prominence in 2009, Sandoval played a minor role on the Championship team of 2010, due to his copious girth combining with the general difficulties of adjusting to the adjustments of the major leagues, causing a significant regression in his production. Perhaps it's the result of living in the East and digesting the biased media attention that scorns the West Coast, but Sandoval's reammergence as a star in 2011 flew under the radar. The big man can hit. And at 25 years of age, his best years may still lie ahead. 2012 could be a huge one for the Panda.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">2011 Stats: 117 games</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">.315/.357/.552 </span>23 HR 153 OPS+ 5.5 fWAR<br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Sandoval's accomplishments last season were certainly undermined by the general atrocity that was the Giants' offense. It might not be much better this season, but the addition of Melky Cabrera, who <a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/03/sleeper-picks-2012_14.html">some people</a> peg for a solid season at the plate, should help matters. The rest of the division failed to improve much in terms of player personnel, so the Giants still-stellar pitching should given them a great chance to reclaim the West. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The big question is whether or not Sandoval can stay on the field. The Giants will need more than 117 games out of the big man to control the division. If Sandoval can stay healthy, he will hit. And he will likely hit the ball very hard. If he manages to play 140+ games, a 35 homer season is not a stretch. With their pitching, that may be all the offense the Giants need to win the title. And if the Giants find themselves playing in October, don't be surprised to hear the Kung Fu Panda talked about as an MVP candidate. We do all love colorful nicknames.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Off-the-cuff projection:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">.293/.377/.581 and 35 HR </span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-33440956603750189832012-03-15T17:25:00.001-04:002012-03-15T17:25:23.221-04:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitaddG-4yojRz9TCa_igNKn98LsQS4f3vyOC8K5P2jpB4mKzQ7AvoifJrNCDHOwwQREgEySz-bKH0nksqAMjN8u6XvmfqfSzytmf9_uSPKwqnwPA0SHqWS7yyxc3eJ2xtys8yWEVyD1-w/s1600/alexgordon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitaddG-4yojRz9TCa_igNKn98LsQS4f3vyOC8K5P2jpB4mKzQ7AvoifJrNCDHOwwQREgEySz-bKH0nksqAMjN8u6XvmfqfSzytmf9_uSPKwqnwPA0SHqWS7yyxc3eJ2xtys8yWEVyD1-w/s1600/alexgordon.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Life's gettin' interesting in KC.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A smarter person (or perhaps a clairvoyant), would have picked Alex Gordon to break-out prior to last season, but most saw him as yet another highly touted prospect lost in the fold. Gordon had a phenomenal 2011, yet many remain hesitant pegging him to continue his superior play. I don't believe 2011 to be his outlier season.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Alex Gordon set career highs in everything in 2011. Upon being drafted with the first overall pick in 2005, the Royals believed him capable of producing at this level, just much sooner. I had the pleasure of watching Gordon lead the Cornhuskers of Nebraska through the Super Regionals in his final collegiate season (2005), and the experience made me dream of being a 20th century baseball scout. He <i>felt </i>like a star. And now he is a star, if a few years late. Some players take longer to mature and adjust than others, which is unfortunate in the case of Gordon. He sure can mash the ball.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Gordon is entering his prime years, having just turned 28 in February. While it is prudent not to expect a duplication of his 2011 success, I don't think it foolhardy. He's always had the skills and makeup, and his head and discipline have caught up. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">2011 Stats</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">.303/.376/.502 23 HR 45 2B 6.9 fWAR</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Don't expect his batting average to remain above .300, as his .358 BABIP will most likely fall closer to league-average (approx. .300). However, his OBP and SLG should remain consistent, if not improve. Gordon still strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, but his patience at the plate is improving, and his power isn't going anywhere. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Gordon's offense clicked once he moved to the outfield. This may be coincidence and timing, or could suggest he is far more comfortable away from the volatile hot corner. He even managed to snag a Gold Glove in 2011, for what it's worth. With the Royals getting better, Gordon will have a better lineup around him, as well as the added excitement of a fanbase energized by the prospect of a contending club. Gordon is poised to be one of the elite offensive players in the American League just as people are starting to pay attention.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Bill James Prediction: .276/.361/.467</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">My non-scholarly prediction: .275/.375/.501 29 HR</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-46937629349543418382012-03-15T12:04:00.000-04:002012-03-15T12:08:40.066-04:00There's a Party in Johnathan Broxton's Pants...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH00TD7hsnWraOX5Alq__qmIvmTuElreG98rHEO3Wmd2BkaVXfJc82GfZ-5FqapboaISHPI5GB5tB2_C9yMUXSqGeAjYUhlkPFDeYTMKk1PoabMpMs-1hJsMKo0Bi14JSAsSZn7jNAS0Yd/s1600/broxton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH00TD7hsnWraOX5Alq__qmIvmTuElreG98rHEO3Wmd2BkaVXfJc82GfZ-5FqapboaISHPI5GB5tB2_C9yMUXSqGeAjYUhlkPFDeYTMKk1PoabMpMs-1hJsMKo0Bi14JSAsSZn7jNAS0Yd/s1600/broxton.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: 'Courier New', Courier, monospace; font-size: small;"><b>...and Everett Teaford and Tim Collins are invited.</b></span></td></tr>
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<br /></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-49558149136730239312012-03-14T13:38:00.000-04:002012-03-14T13:38:21.322-04:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgshtVIXj9CSzuw61gvSU4K_4k2U13owxZkeiZqP_mB_DWhSKczC3bK6umc6PwkmpAGqkL4q0NIm5BX6Hy-4Dp0wYYeoKg3dL3P5c7vDa3ca7nc6HN64nBAek2fUglL2kP3qlJGUV5T57Ov/s1600/melkman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgshtVIXj9CSzuw61gvSU4K_4k2U13owxZkeiZqP_mB_DWhSKczC3bK6umc6PwkmpAGqkL4q0NIm5BX6Hy-4Dp0wYYeoKg3dL3P5c7vDa3ca7nc6HN64nBAek2fUglL2kP3qlJGUV5T57Ov/s1600/melkman.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The Melkman Cometh</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This is probably stupid on my part, or at the very least a bit irrational, but bear with me for a moment. Former baseball blog whipping boy, Melky Cabrera is coming off of a career year in which he put up personal bests in every single offensive category. Usually outlier years can be chalked up to little more than good fortune, and should be taken with a grain of salt, but there is something to be said for the numbers Cabrera put up last year. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In 2011, Melky entered his age 26 season, which according to <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves" target="_blank">player aging curves</a> is when many players hit their peak. There have been countless stories of ballplayers struggling through the early part of their careers before ultimately figuring things out and becoming productive players. In addition to hitting his physical peak, Melky seems to have matured as many people leaving their early 20's do. He arrived to Royals camp in 2011 in the best shape of his life™, dropping the baby fat he carried with him the beginning of his career and seemed to be more focused on baseball.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">2011 Stats:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">4.2 fWAR, .305/.339/.470, .349 wOBA, 121 OPS+, .332 BABIP, 18 HR, 20 SB, 706 PA</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It's not likely that Cabrera will top, or even match, the numbers he had last season. The giant spike in BABIP helped get his batting average over .300 for the first time in his career. This is likely to regress closer to his career .300 BABIP, which will drop his batting average in return, but, the slugging numbers Melky put up last year might be the most encouraging thing about his 2011 campaign. And if he can sustain his power surge, he might make Brian Sabean look like a smart man. The park factors of Kauffman stadium, and AT&T Park are both pitcher friendly, so his power numbers shouldn't regress due to a change in venue. In fact, AT&T Park is more home run friendly to left handed hitters than Kauffman, so there may be reason to be optimistic for higher home run totals for the Melk Man this season.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Giants will be leaning heavily on Cabrera to provide some punch to an offense that was rather anemic last season. The NL West should be an extremely winnable division with the D'Backs providing the only real competition for the division crown. Replacing the lack of production that Andres Torres provided last season with Melky Cabrera may help the Giants pick up an extra win or two, and in a tight division race, those marginal wins are worth their weight in gold. Let's just hope we don't see too much of <a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/880320/MelkyCabreraBestThrowEver.gif" target="_blank">this</a> out of Melky in 2012.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Off the Cuff Projection:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">.280/.330/.450 and 25 HR</span></span></div>
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</tbody></table>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-45610051878192944412012-03-13T00:39:00.001-04:002012-03-13T01:28:30.435-04:00This is a Picture of Jeff Karstens<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicW7UScqD78EPH63DWF7buKhX8l86J0CknvDwQ7wzqbhuwORa6HQTOZ4wW4H1zPi2i2qZRq6jEGKdmV29bOfGw7AbuPig3xTsYu5PhX9jT1mOyAco1bkglpVwQxvt_q6Wwwc6hMJF_uCxq/s1600/karstens.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicW7UScqD78EPH63DWF7buKhX8l86J0CknvDwQ7wzqbhuwORa6HQTOZ4wW4H1zPi2i2qZRq6jEGKdmV29bOfGw7AbuPig3xTsYu5PhX9jT1mOyAco1bkglpVwQxvt_q6Wwwc6hMJF_uCxq/s1600/karstens.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hurr Durr Derp</span></td></tr>
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<br />Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-7076655328493350262012-03-11T23:10:00.002-04:002012-03-11T23:10:38.509-04:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHCeOjNa_sS9zWJklPyFlwRaah3PIFS1Bf_QDuqNU7acMynBaCIu-edgzHbLOa6hpqH9qYW2wu2T2EjIQK_SiwXohrq8Ak12VC5PEmV9A_bhHrWerTrHkNGLqZ1xNN8gN2S-MqyhqYJCE/s1600/matt+garza.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHCeOjNa_sS9zWJklPyFlwRaah3PIFS1Bf_QDuqNU7acMynBaCIu-edgzHbLOa6hpqH9qYW2wu2T2EjIQK_SiwXohrq8Ak12VC5PEmV9A_bhHrWerTrHkNGLqZ1xNN8gN2S-MqyhqYJCE/s1600/matt+garza.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Bright Light in Wrigley</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A move to the hustle and bustle of Wrigley Field should have brought Matt Garza greater fame and notoriety. Unfortunately, while his former employers (TB) continued their stellar play, Garza's Cubs continued to move in the wrong direction. His pockmarked 10-10 record put him in most fans' rearviewmirror</span> <span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">and didn't get him much attention from the national baseball media. But 2011 was the best season of Garza's career as well as being one of the best in the National League. The Cubs won't be much better this season, but they will at least have a more clearly defined identity. And at 29, Garza is still in the prime of his career. Oh, and he's pitching for a contract, which sometimes means something.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Garza is probably the best player on the 2012 Cubs. Starlin Castro may prove himself more valuable, but right now Garza's the guy. Sadly, he only gets to play in 30-35 games. And even sadder, there is a good chance he won't finish the season with the Cubs. As Epstein and Hoyer rebuild the franchise, Garza's trade value may be too high to pass up. A mid-season trade will affect his Cy Young chances, but don't be surprised if Garza finds himself among the league's best, whichever league that turns out to be.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Matt Garza 2011 stats 198 IP</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">5 fWAR 118 ERA+ 8.95 K/9 2.86 BB/9 0.64 HR/9 46.3 GB% .306 BABIP 2.95 FIP</span> <br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Garza stands out in K/9, HR/9, and GB%. Garza has the stuff to dominate hitters and the command to keep the ball in the ballpark. Keeping the ball on the ground is good, but he'll run into some problems with the Cubs infield again, as they are not among the best. And he still walks too many batters. But his BABIP is similar to league-average and his FIP suggests even better things to come. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Cubs will not be competitive in 2012, but that won't affect Garza too much (except perhaps in wins). One of the hallmarks of his career thus far has been his fierce competitiveness. Pitching in a contract year on the heels of his best season, Garza is poised to be even better. It will be interesting to see where he finishes. </span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-24991289470655665002012-03-10T14:41:00.003-05:002012-03-10T14:42:53.217-05:00Sleeper Picks 2012<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJwMgacjEwZqyJ37eC7mDOiageCUKNn6t1s49rp31vwO_m6WuEIfod7BONk9TbtMlTqKkygKgjxQ-L_LYs-eB8zpdEV6DovXb1e2IApyz8gupCOGw16343bv3c84LzT9l3LXZK2hEa7lc/s1600/danharen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJwMgacjEwZqyJ37eC7mDOiageCUKNn6t1s49rp31vwO_m6WuEIfod7BONk9TbtMlTqKkygKgjxQ-L_LYs-eB8zpdEV6DovXb1e2IApyz8gupCOGw16343bv3c84LzT9l3LXZK2hEa7lc/s1600/danharen.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Dan Haren -- Pitcher</td></tr>
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<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">We all like to make picks, predictions, etc. It's fun and quite gratifying when you select a player to have a break-out year, and he actually comes through. Even more so when nobody else seems to finger that player for greatness. Of course, we are all almost always wrong. Except maybe Bill James or Tom Tango. They are right slightly more than the rest of us, so inevitably we use their predictions as a guide. Dizzy Valance and myself make annual picks for top Cy Young finishers and MVP finishers. Often we are wrong. Although credit goes to Dizzy for picking both King Felix and Halladay to win the award in 2010. I thought myself quite clever to pick Ubaldo Jimenez to pick up the hardware in 2010 when few people bought into his potential. He almost made me look like a genius. Or idiot savant. Likewise for my pick of Jered Weaver to win it in 2011. Almost. Our picks for the awards and divisions will be coming along with those of everybody else. For now, we'll just while away at observing those players who look to break-out in 2012, like Jimenez in 2010 or Weaver in 2011.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">To select Dan Haren as a sleeper pick is admittedly a bit of a cop-out. He has been one of the top pitchers in baseball since joining the Athletics back in 2005. Haren has provided 36.3 fWAR as a starter over the past seven seasons, topping 200 innings pitched in each one. He has done all this quietly, never having pitched on the east coast, and never having been expected to be the ace of the staff. He was hidden in Oakland in the aftermath of the Big Three departing, then played second fiddle to Brandon Webb in Arizona, and then to Jered Weaver in Anaheim. Haren should emerge to stardom this season, as the Angels will be getting a lot more national attention with the arrival of Albert Pujols and the enhanced rivalry with the Rangers. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">New arrival C.J. Wilson will get significant attention, as will Weaver. But my money is on Haren to emerge as the true Ace by mid-season. Weaver is likely to regress a bit, while Wilson still has much to prove (though pitching in Anaheim rather than the Ballpark in Arlington should give him ample opportunity to exceed last season's success). The addition of Pujols as well as a better season from Vernon Wells (really, he <i>has</i> to be better in 2012) will provide more offensive support and should lead to more of those pretty wins that have evaded Haren throughout his career.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Haren posted one of his best seasons in 2011, despite a dip in his SO/9. He still posted a respectable 7.25/9, though it was more than a SO less than his previous two seasons. If he maintains this level, his dominance should continue. His ground ball % has been consistently above average, and his HR/9 in 2011 was the lowest of his career (0.76/9). His 2011 BABIP of .272 is cause for mild concern, but the Angels field a solid defensive team to back him up. His 2011 FIP of 2.98 suggests Haren still has the out-pitches necessary to control a game. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Haren's status as one of the better pitchers in baseball is no secret among knowledgeable baseball fans, but rarely is he spoken of among the elite. Or in relation to the Cy Young. This year I expect that to change, as Haren should have an easier time getting those wins to garnish his superior pitching.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Bill James : 234 IP, 3.31 FIP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">My ignorant pretty number prediction : 18+ wins, ERA around 3.00</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-88569350394774490712012-02-27T22:45:00.001-05:002012-02-27T22:45:59.300-05:00All-time Pitching Rotations--Vol. IV<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFbiKdnrf3JCofu1Mw9zNSOnPDG3jeXqSrgk1yJBp3vRLmwEwtoFnxLFHABblAk4khTPzlSj9MIbp0NY3GsgLWE6QdbprmM5GyADk7Jh2zgJvhyphenhyphen3TkyDY1BQWXwwzMEEXuITE3jIOkrs/s1600/orioles.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFbiKdnrf3JCofu1Mw9zNSOnPDG3jeXqSrgk1yJBp3vRLmwEwtoFnxLFHABblAk4khTPzlSj9MIbp0NY3GsgLWE6QdbprmM5GyADk7Jh2zgJvhyphenhyphen3TkyDY1BQWXwwzMEEXuITE3jIOkrs/s400/orioles.jpg" width="268" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The greatness of a pitching rotation continues to be discussed mostly in simple terms of wins and losses, despite how much more we now know. Wins are what the game is all about--getting them however possible. But wins are a team stat, not an individual one. Few teams won as many games in a three year span as the Baltimore Orioles of 1969-1971. They won a combined 118 games en route to three straight pennants and one World Series title (1970). Much of the credit for their success has been lauded on their pitching staff, led by a young Jim Palmer. 1971 was the standout year, as all four starters reached that magical benchmark of 20 wins. But were all those wins the result of dominant pitching, or the byproduct of a great team executing in all facets of the game?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A clunky set of stats:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Jim Palmer 20W 2.68ERA 3.19FIP 4.1rWAR 126ERA+ .249BABIP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mike Cuellar 20W 3.08ERA 3.75FIP 2.7rWAR 109ERA+ .236BABIP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Pat Dobson 20W 2.90ERA 2.92FIP 3.1rWAR 116ERA+ .261BABIP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Dave McNally 21W 2.89ERA 3.87FIP 3.1rWAR 117ERA+ .227BABIP</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Team Totals : 530 runs allowed, 101 team wins</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Top 4 Totals : 13rWAR 117ERA+</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The numbers above represent a very good pitching staff, one that would be the envy of most teams across baseball history. However, the numbers do not suggest a dominant one. That each pitcher won 20 or more games is a testament to the team as a whole, which was also very good offensively. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Nothing should be taken away from this dynamic foursome; they were all above-average pitchers. But on a different team, they likely would not have managed to win so many games. I have included BABIP to display this staff's reliance on measures beyond their control to succeed. All four pitchers posted remarkably low BABIP, which suggests two things: they each benefited from a significant amount of luck, and they pitched with a <i>very </i>good defense backing them up.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Each pitcher relied heavily on defense, namely infield defense, to get outs. None of them struck out 200 batters. They combined for only 586 strikeouts in 1,081 innings pitched*. That is an awful lot of outs that necessitated the assistance of the defense. When you look at the players gobbling up those ground balls, the success of the Oriole pitchers becomes much clearer.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">*<i>1,081 innings pitched from four starters! That averages to just more than 270 innings per pitcher. I can't imagine we'll ever see such a workload carried by four starters ever again. This is a testament to the times, sure. But mostly to four good pitchers that manager Earl Weaver obviously had no interest in taking out of the game.*</i> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">At first base you've got Boog Powell, who is...well, Boog Powell. Not atrocious. But a first baseman needn't execute performance art out there, especially when the rest of the infield looks like this:</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">2B Davey Johnson : 3 gold gloves</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">SS Mark Belanger : 8 gold gloves</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">3B Brooks Robinson : 16 gold gloves</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">That's a combined 27 gold gloves among the three most important infield positions. Say what you will about the Gold Glove, it's hard to argue with that much hardware. Factor in centerfielder Paul Blair, who won eight in his career, and you've got one hell of an up-the-middle defense. And all four of those players won the award in 1971.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Jim Palmer</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Palmer was certainly the ace of the Baltimore staff. He won 20+ games in eight different seasons, posted a career 2.86 ERA, 126 ERA+, and won three AL Cy Young Awards. He was inarguably a very good pitcher. He is viewed by most to have been a great pitcher, and perhaps he was. His numbers point to that. But he did have a career .249 BABIP, which is absurdly low. Palmer benefited greatly being surrounded by such good defensive players. That aside, due credit must be given, for Palmer learned how to win with the team he had behind him and pitched to its strength. He was always surrounded by a stellar infield and made himself a consistent groundball pitcher. He was also incredibly durable. So yeah, Hall of Famer. But on another team, I doubt he would have been elected by 92.6% on the first ballot.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Mike Cuellar</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Cuellar is one of those rare pitchers to hit his prime as an old man. Things finally clicked for Cuellar when he was twenty-nine during the 1966 season. For the next nine seasons ('66-74) Cuellar accumulated 31.2 WAR and an AL Cy Young. That includes a season in which he only managed 0.5 WAR. His ability to pitch effectively late into his 30s is even more surprising considering his diminutive size (6ft, 165lbs). If not for his late start, Cuellar may have a plaque in Cooperstown along with Palmer.<b> </b> </span><br />
<br />
<b>Dave McNally</b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">McNally was a solid pitcher who three a lot of innings during his prime. He won 20+ games in each of the '68-'71 seasons. His best season coming in 1968 when he posted a 4.7 WAR. Unlike Cuellar, McNally started young and burned out early, falling from competence by age thirty-two.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Pat Dobson</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Dobson was the outlier on the staff, a journeyman pitcher picked up from San Diego prior to the 1971 season. He played for six different teams, never sticking for long in any one place. The '71 season was the only in which he won 20 games, but his best year was 1974 with the Yankees, where he posted a 4.3 WAR.<b> </b> </span><b> </b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">So while the 1971 Baltimore Orioles is the last team to have four 20 game winners, they were hardly the most dominant staff in history. They actually rate below the three previous staffs examined in this series. Despite this, I would gladly take them on my team any damn day, if for no other reason than the insane number of innings they ate up. But I would argue that it is safe to say that if these four pitchers were transplanted to a different team, with any other defense, it would be unlikely that any of them would reach 20 wins. How would all those ground balls work out for them if they all pitched for the 2012 Detroit Tigers? </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A bit of accounting:</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">1971 Baltimore Orioles 13 rWAR 117 ERA+ 1,081 IP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-iii.html">2002 Oakland Athletics</a> 20.7 rWAR 132 ERA+ 867 IP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-vol-ii.html">1997 Atlanta Braves</a> 20.9 rWAR 152 ERA+ 962 IP</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-vol-i.html">2011 Philadelphia Phillies</a> 22.5 rWAR 148 ERA+ 814 IP</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-84776767758575049052012-02-26T15:47:00.000-05:002012-02-26T15:47:06.687-05:00This is a Picture of Hipster Lance Berkman<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZAkz77Fk5xmiSYn0juScANj3XnrfLlrWdJVOJwbSWwJO73mVknCiHLhauBCFBzQUHdgKifA3voslJGT6kpRGqeyZdhTENj9nHeobkKvwfagHusk0wwgQOdAznFEgT1rRwrPTwBdfM0COU/s1600/Berkman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZAkz77Fk5xmiSYn0juScANj3XnrfLlrWdJVOJwbSWwJO73mVknCiHLhauBCFBzQUHdgKifA3voslJGT6kpRGqeyZdhTENj9nHeobkKvwfagHusk0wwgQOdAznFEgT1rRwrPTwBdfM0COU/s1600/Berkman.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Just eating a sandwich and rockin' a deep V.</span></td></tr>
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<br /></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-18376725428999130082012-02-22T13:50:00.000-05:002012-02-26T14:12:36.088-05:00ManBearZim<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Just what in the name of Bill Veeck is going on down in Florida this off-season? It seems as if the Rays and Marlins are trying to out-zany each other. The Marlins fired the opening shots with new technicolor uniforms, aquariums on the playing field, and an acid induced home run structure. The Rays retaliated with DJ Kitty, and now this. The Zim Bear: Half Don Zimmer, half Teddy Bear, half morphine induced fever dream. Get your own on June 29th when the Rays take on the Oakland A's (free to the first 10,000 fans), or just go ahead and do an eBay saved search now.</span></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-43817119770747959862012-02-19T22:06:00.001-05:002012-02-19T22:07:51.412-05:00All-Time Pitching Rotations--Vol. III<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHlVg5p-Q70BN4teSG94_BPjRa_YBzGsQaxM3CNjFCXXiBKR6e381dLuQxlaFw1ypWmpdpvgc5meM26d-25ExZI5QzetQO5fEVCqReu9HxABU9hy_a-SW6FFSa3Y4sXhDQ6deutrmGnaU/s1600/2002A'S.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHlVg5p-Q70BN4teSG94_BPjRa_YBzGsQaxM3CNjFCXXiBKR6e381dLuQxlaFw1ypWmpdpvgc5meM26d-25ExZI5QzetQO5fEVCqReu9HxABU9hy_a-SW6FFSa3Y4sXhDQ6deutrmGnaU/s1600/2002A'S.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Big Three: A novelization by Nicholas Sparks.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The night sky was dark. Not like coal, but dark like the undulating waves of Barry Zito's hair, cascading in folds across his laconic brow as the cool breezy Bay breezes flowed into the stadium. The lights came on. The crowd filed in, rapt in anxious excitement as they prepared for battle. A hotdog to calm the nervous swishing in their bellies, an ice cold beer to numb their nerves, which were dancing a waltz through their quivering bodies. The grass is green as freshly mowed grass, the rigid blades tickling the players' cleats like the love-hair prickles of a wanton lover...oh sugar! This is a baseball blog, not the newest from literary laureate Nicholas Sparks. You'll have to wait for that one. It will be published too soon.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Our search for the greatest pitching rotation in history marches on with The Big Three from Oakland, and that other guy. They were good, boyos. Even better than I remembered. But do they stack up to the best?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> The Oakland Athletics of the early 2000s received a lot of attention. In part because of <i>Moneyball </i>and Billy Beane, but mostly because of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder anchoring the pitching rotation. The A's won a lot of games, which led to several division titles, but unfortunately they always made a premature exit from the playoffs. Beane gets much of the credit for building those teams, as he should, but having three stable, frontline starters provided the A's with the foundation to win consistently. From 2001-2003, the A's rotation was dominant, posting 56.6rWAR and a 132ERA+ en route to the teams winning 301 games over those three seasons. 2002 was the standout season for the Big Three and their fourth man, Cory Lidle.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A clunky set of stats:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Tim Hudson 15W 2.98ERA 3.60FIP 6.6rWAR 145ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Barry Zito 23W 2.75ERA 3.87FIP 6.5rWAR 158ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mark Mulder 19W 3.47ERA 3.70FIP 4.3rWAR 125ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Cory Lidle 8W 3.89ERA 3.66FIP 3.3rWAR 112ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Team Totals : 654 runs allowed 103 Team Wins</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Top 4 Totals : 20.7rWAR 132ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The A's dominated the AL West until the dismantling of the The Big Three was complete following the 2006 season, with the exception of the Mariners' amazing 2001. However, they were built for the long season and found themselves outmatched in the short series format of the playoffs. The A's have yet to produce young starters with the quality of The Big Three, all of whom pitched very well up until their departure from Oakland.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Tim Hudson was and is the best of the three. He is the only one that has continued to be effective after being traded to Atlanta. 2002 was Zito's Cy Young season, yet a closer look at the numbers shows that Hudson was every bit as effective, though his name doesn't appear on the Cy Young voting results. He was the closest the club had to a power pitcher, and the only one hindsight suggests Beane should've kept.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Barry Zito was a very good pitcher for the A's, but washed up in the opposite end of the Bay DOA. His FIP numbers have always suggested the pitcher he has become, which is, quite simply, a minor leaguer. He won the Cy Young in 2002, though most folks still believe <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2002.shtml#ALcya">Pedro</a> rightfully deserves that hardware. Zito's sharp fall aside, for a few seasons he was very good in Oakland and a significant contributor to their great run.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mark Mulder was the least interesting of the three. He didn't have a remarkable out-pitch, nor was his curve ball as elliptically pleasing as that of Zito. But with his white cleats and clean-cut appearance he looked and pitched like a professional. He won 72 games in his four full seasons in Oakland, certainly benefiting by pitching for a very good team that could score a lot of runs. But he was consistent until his arm fell off his second year in St. Louis. Like with Zito, Billy Beane was wise to let Mulder go. In return Beane brought back Dan Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero. Dan Haren has become one of the best pitchers in the game (since dealt to Anaheim via Arizona), Barton still looks to be an up-and-coming talent. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The strength of the Big Three was already fizzling at the time of their dismantling. They had a phenomenal run despite never winning a World Series, a testament to Oakland's scouting and player development. Three young pitchers of such caliber don't often find themselves on the same team and approaching their peak together. Oakland fans had the pleasure of witnessing something great, and though at the time they were surely frustrated watching each one leave, the end came at just the right time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A bit of accounting:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">2002 Oakland Athletics : 20.7rWAR 132ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-vol-ii.html#more">1997 Atlanta Braves</a> : 20.9rWAR 152ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-vol-i.html">2011 Philadelphia Phillies</a> : 22.5rWAR 148ERA+</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-67744053252538790382012-02-18T20:10:00.001-05:002012-02-18T21:04:28.341-05:00Through the Looking Glass<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZxxEpgvm02QN_VLBeXymcay_16ccnUG1aIZzvef9PBJyCtGjneT2V4YoB0EXTst7ldoBrjdDNSZeikrB23K-Wlos5-TqSdfPljh7EVkvSjV8exT9HaRH5Oz-5x0gBmKFHLasamioIKxX/s1600/Kitty-Mascot.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOZxxEpgvm02QN_VLBeXymcay_16ccnUG1aIZzvef9PBJyCtGjneT2V4YoB0EXTst7ldoBrjdDNSZeikrB23K-Wlos5-TqSdfPljh7EVkvSjV8exT9HaRH5Oz-5x0gBmKFHLasamioIKxX/s400/Kitty-Mascot.png" width="327" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">LOLcats are taking over baseball. It started in 2010 when the Seattle Mariners had an <a href="http://icanhascheezburger.com/2010/03/31/cheezburger-nite-mariners/" target="_blank">I Can Haz Cheezburger</a> promotional night complete with a cat bobble-head, then the Tampa Bay Rays started playing <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=DT9nG7f-rE0" target="_blank">this video</a> on the scoreboard between innings. The slightly terrifying image you see above is DJ Kitty, the newest mascot of the Tampa Bay Rays (yes, that is a cowbell hanging from its neck). If the <a href="http://i2.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/000/015/orly.jpg" target="_blank">O RLY</a> owl makes his MLB debut this year, may God have mercy on us all.</span></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-46744334063028316232012-02-16T17:23:00.000-05:002012-02-16T17:23:26.936-05:00R.I.P. Gary Carter<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1P95W3yVCCIziBRpMZIw2M9xP332MhXaaD9K2BHdnXKQbDBSGrXe1XFkr2d5BymMZcwHf3WvWlT1LuA9oShyg4e9Zr8Caw2gGbeCyikS5H1GhJi9eV2Ihpi0f1DCBjhDywHQgj6eDAWSt/s1600/carter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1P95W3yVCCIziBRpMZIw2M9xP332MhXaaD9K2BHdnXKQbDBSGrXe1XFkr2d5BymMZcwHf3WvWlT1LuA9oShyg4e9Zr8Caw2gGbeCyikS5H1GhJi9eV2Ihpi0f1DCBjhDywHQgj6eDAWSt/s1600/carter.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">1954-2012</span></div>
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<br /></div>Dizzy Valancehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15589478501521256778noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4515545262843248675.post-35459283486842265892012-02-15T20:15:00.000-05:002012-02-15T20:15:16.158-05:00All-Time Pitching Rotations -- Vol. II<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdu5b40Fdy3jhm5P7LNPT2RC-YYHhJvR1v8_g-anewdmFFT-w1aB8ZBbGHKmwLQCqZqVRzyqR40vc9vW65aNlxN3lGnISK3mYgjyIsBcW94oALaxmbz0txwSfZV2tr4-varLd4zn25774/s1600/selfsatisfiedmen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdu5b40Fdy3jhm5P7LNPT2RC-YYHhJvR1v8_g-anewdmFFT-w1aB8ZBbGHKmwLQCqZqVRzyqR40vc9vW65aNlxN3lGnISK3mYgjyIsBcW94oALaxmbz0txwSfZV2tr4-varLd4zn25774/s1600/selfsatisfiedmen.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A trio of justifiably self-satisfied young men</span>.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Any conversation about pitching greatness eventually comes around to the Atlanta Braves of the 1990s. Most of the time, the conversation both begins and ends there. Growing up in Atlanta during this period, despite being a Cubs fan, I had the supreme pleasure of watching these guys pitch an awful lot. The summers were great for a baseball fan down here: watch the Cubs flounder lovingly at 2:20ET, dirty the side of the house with tennis ball-shaped red clay splotches, watch the Braves play beautifully at 7:10ET. Why in the hell did I not shift my allegiance, especially with no actual ties to the city of Chicago? That's an answer for another day, but surely, in part, because I was a fool. Although my Cubs fanship will one day pay huge dividends. Besides, failure is all a part of it, and the Cubs have only failed for twenty-three years that have mattered to me personally. Back on topic...the Atlanta Braves were great. They should have won more World Series Championships, and they <a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2011/10/oh-my-october.html">earned</a> more than the five pennants they won.</span> <span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But did they have the best rotation of all time?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves were superlative all through the 1990s and into the first part of the next century, their peak being after the acquisition of Greg Maddux before the 1993 season. How baseball history would have been altered if the Pirates had not reneged on the handshake deal that, for a cup of coffee, made Barry Bonds a Brave. Then there would have been no money for Maddux, and he likely would've signed with the New York Yankees. Yikes. Both the Yankees and Braves may have been even better, in different ways. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It is difficult to select one season on which to concentrate. From 1995-1999, the top four men in the rotation compiled 91.6rWAR and a 148ERA+...that's over five years! And the Big Three of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz were never at their individual best in the same season. They must have signed some blood oath to pass along the accolades. Or perhaps Maddux just lost a bet. As a team, the Braves had their best season in 1998*, with 106 wins. But I would argue 1997 saw the height of their pitching prowess as a rotation.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">*<i>The Braves, of course, lost to the Padres in the NLCS in 1998, but that doesn't diminish their greatness. They should've been in the Fall Classic that year. Numbers-wise, 1995 could stand as their best pitching season (and they won it all to boot). But their overall numbers were inflated by Maddux's superhuman year that saw him post 8.8rWAR and a 262ERA+*</i> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A clunky set of stats:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Greg Maddux 19W 2.20ERA 2.43FIP 7.3rWAR 189ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Tom Glavine 14W 2.96ERA 3.96FIP 5.0rWAR 141ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">John Smoltz 15W 3.02ERA 3.04FIP 4.5rWAR 138ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Denny Neagle 20W 2.97ERA 3.34FIP 4.1rWAR 140ERA+</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Team Totals : 581 runs allowed; 101 team wins</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Top 4 Totals : 20.9rWAR 152ERA+</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Coming off two consecutive pennants, the Braves were poised for a third, but fell pray to the clusterfuck of expanded playoffs. The Big Three carried the torch, with Maddux having a Cy Young caliber season, if not for this <a href="http://sportswithballsshow.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/pedro_expos.jpg">little guy</a>. Glavine pitched like an All Star, and Smoltz was right in stride. Denny Neagle, acquired from Pittsburgh the previous season, stepped up his game, probably with the help of that Leo Mazzone pixie dust that used to work so well. If you need any further evidence as to the arbitrariness of wins, look no further than Neagle in '97. He was the fourth best pitcher on the staff, yet he gets to sport the 20-game winner t-shirt around the clubhouse. All snark aside, Neagle was very good in 1997, complementing the Big Three in what was, top to bottom, one of the greatest pitching staffs every assembled.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Braves always managed to find an above-replacement level fourth man to pick up any slack from injuries or temporary regressions from the Big Three. Neagle gave them a couple good seasons. Steve Avery had his moment in the sun. And if you can remember, Kevin Millwood was pretty darn good for a small time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It was not a flashy staff. Following them closely, as well as baseball in general, I don't recall an overwhelming level of fanfare from ESPN and company. Smoltz was the most dynamic of the three: he had the strikeouts and the stern game face. And of course there was that game 7 in 1991. Losing can make a legend. He was definitely the favorite among most Braves fans; the games he pitched at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium/Turner Field were always the most raucous. And although his career pales a bit in comparison to those of Glavine and Maddux, Smoltz had the most dominant presence on the mound. As a fan watching at the park, or to a lesser extent on television, one always felt more confident in getting a win when Smoltz was on the mound. He just seemed to tower over the hitter, capable of getting that necessary punch-out at will. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Glavine, whether you loved baseball or not, could be quite a bore to watch, taking his sweet ass time and dancing painfully around the outside black. Although he was nothing compared to Andy Pettitte. If Pettitte had pitched in the pre-television era, I'm pretty confident his opponents (and possibly even some of his teammates) would have popped his joints inside-out for all his tiresome delays.</span> <span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">And for Glavine, the first inning was always a traumatic experience. You didn't feel comfortable with Glavine out there until he survived the first frame. After that, it was usually smooth sailing.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">And then there's Maddux. Well, his steady greatness is just too difficult to quantify. He should not have been as good as he was. But he was. On the occasional day when his location failed him, watching the hit parade that ensued felt like some bizarre, existential fever dream. The Earth seemed off kilter. But during his prime, those days were scarce. In hindsight, it is difficult to believe they occurred at all. A glorious freak of the game of baseball. No satisfactory way to explain it. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">While a single season of this rotation may not hold up among the best, I doubt any other staff matches the longevity of their greatness. The fact that it was so difficult to pick one year on which to focus about says it all. And oh yes, for what it's worth, the staff accumulated six Cy Young Awards (3Maddux, 2Glavine, 1Smoltz). And Maddux won another won the year before signing with Atlanta, and thus cementing one of the greatest, if not the best, rotation anyone has ever seen.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A bit of accounting:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">1997 Atlanta Braves : 20.9rWAR 152ERA+</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="http://www.crumbumbeat.blogspot.com/2012/02/all-time-pitching-rotations-vol-i.html">2011 Philadelphia Phillies</a> : 22.5rWAR 148ERA+</span>Curley Benderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05996766533368260057noreply@blogger.com0