Oh My October

Not this year

While much of the baseball watching public reacted in shock to the Cardinals’ dispatching of the Phillies, I was merely resigned.  One could feel it coming; it’s been coming steady since the Wild Card was implemented in 1995.  Once again the best team in the league, and rightful pennant winner, failed to earn the privilege of hoisting that flag.  There is no love lost on my part on behalf of the Philadelphia Phillies.  They are a very good team, the best in the National League by six victories and had a superb 2011 campaign.  And yes, they were much better than the St. Louis Cardinals.  And yet, those of us still excited by the grandeur of the World Series, the last gasp of Summer before the cold North winds force us indoors and the days actually do get shorter, will once again face the possibility of seeing one of baseball’s lesser teams competing on the game’s grandest stage.  But if the Cardinals do in fact defeat the Brewers and advance to the World Series, will they have earned it?  Sure.  They had to win games to get there.  But they still won’t be the National League’s best offering.  Just as the winner of ALCS will fail to represent the best of the Junior Circuit.  It seems this inevitability is good for baseball, good for the fans.  Or at least those men in the position of making decisions on behalf of this two-century-old game seem to think so, as the playoffs are on the verge of further expansion. 

I have a difficult time decrying the current playoff system of four teams competing for each pennant (though the best-of-five Divisional round is laughable) because it has resulted in a great deal of exciting moments and unlikely heroes.  However, the purist in me, the baseball fan in love with the game’s promise that Summer lasts for seven months rather than the seasonal three, longs to see that promise rewarded with the best team from each league battling for the World Series crown.  As you will see in the table below, this rarely happens in the modern incarnation of playoff baseball.  In the seventeen seasons since the introduction of the Wild Card, the two best teams in baseball have met in the World Series twice, in 1995 and 1999.  This drastic disparity represents the MLB playoffs’ inability to showcase the best in baseball over the course of the 162 game season, but rather the best of the moment.  Luck, or to the more spiritual among us, the baseball gods, plays a greater role in determining a champion.  In a recent post on his blog, Joe Posnanski states that “The 162-game season has shifted from feature to opening act. Baseball used to be about winning pennants. Now it's about getting into the playoffs and taking your chances.”  This shift has perhaps provided greater opportunity for smaller market teams to compete for a title.  So far I’m not convinced of this.  The table below presents the regular season pennant winners that would have faced off under the old system, the survivors of the playoff system that ultimately squared off in the Fall Classic, and the disparity in wins between the two.  As one should know without assistance, the team in bold hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy.  What follows is a brief write-up of World Series matchups of which we were deprived under the current system, from the three years in which the win disparity was greatest.

1997 Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles

ATL : Lost to FLA 4-2 LCS

BAL : Lost to CLE 4-2 LCS

The Marlins' upset of the Braves in the NLCS certainly provided an element of surprise to the '97 playoffs and ultimately led to the first Championship in their very short history (also the first Wild Card team to win).  The Marlins' triumph also illustrated the power of money to build a championship team in the modern era to go along with the inherent greed necessary to dismantle it the following season.  The Indians, an impressive powerhouse in the '90s, clawed their way to another chance at a title, only to lose in the 7th game (arguably the only quality game in the series). 

Many forget the quality baseball played in Baltimore in the mid-90s.  The initial luster of their beautiful new Camden Yards had yet to wear off by 1997, and the park was filled with excited fans and good ballplayers.  1997 would be the last winning season in Baltimore as the power in the AL East shifted to Boston and New York despite the loyal big-market Orioles fan base and high gate receipts.  Would a World Series appearance in 1997 have prevented their immediate decline?  Perhaps not, but increased national attention and a taste for glory can go a long way in baseball.

The Braves by 1997 had already appeared in four World Series, winning one of them.  While many fans had surely grown weary of seeing the Braves every October, the team still held on to one of the largest national followings thanks to Ted Turner and his TBS Superstation.  The Braves were easily the best team in baseball, riding their superior starting pitching to greatness from '91-'05.  They have been the best team since the Strike, rightfully winning seven pennants.  And every baseball fan loved to watch those big three toe the rubber (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz).  Just to see if somebody could beat them.

The rightful 1997 series would have pitted the dominant pitching of the Braves against a well-rounded but aged Orioles team.  When all is said and done, this series would likely have boasted eight Hall of Fame players, most notably giving the beloved Cal Ripken Jr. the opportunity to bookend his career with another ring. 

 2001 St. Louis Cardinals/Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

STL : Lost to ARZ 3-2 LDS

HOU : Lost to ATL 3-0 LDS

SEA : Lost to NYY 4-1 LCS

Despite the greatest win differential in the current system, the 2001 World Series turned out to be one of the most memorable, both for the feats on the playing field and the heightened emotion resulting from 9/11.  Despite having won the previous three World Series, many fans typically rooting against the Yankees now found themselves pulling for them to defeat the Diamondbacks.  Games 4,5,7 were among the most exciting World Series games every played.  However, the potential matchups determined by the regular season would have carried their own measure of intrigue.

The Seattle Mariners won more games than any team in the history of baseball.  They did so with a potent lineup that featured four players with 20+ home runs, three players with 100+ runs batted in, a fiery manager, and some Japanese guy.  Interesting that they ascended to legendary status the year following Alex Rodriguez's departure.  Their downfall resulted from the lack of a dominant ace at the front of the rotation coupled with that old Yankee magic, seemingly in no shortage in 2001.

The St. Louis Cardinals boasted a solid starting staff to go along with a dynamic offense led by their three dynamic outfielders: the limitless talent of J.D. Drew, the steady Jim Edmonds, and the rookie phenom, Albert Pujols.  However, nobody could hit Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in the 2001 playoffs.  What an exciting Series it would have been, seeing Pujols and Ichiro (each league's Rookie of the Year and likely Hall of Famers) get tested in the Fall Classic.

The Houston Astros were enjoying the height of the Killer Bs, with Lance Berkman in his first full season over-shadowing his future Hall of Fame teammates.  Their offense was stacked, with the aforementioned Bs to go along with Alou, Castilla, and Hidalgo.  Unfortunately, in the postseason good pitching always beats good hitting, and while the Astros lacked it, the Braves had it in abundance.  Houston has fielded some very good teams over the last twenty years, however they always seem to lack in one area or another.  In 2001 they could hit a ton but couldn't get easy outs.  In 2005, when they won the pennant, they could pitch with best but couldn't have scored more runs if the Crawford seats were only 200ft from the plate.

2006  New York Mets vs. New York Yankees

NYM : Lost to STL 4-3 LCS

NYY : Lost to DET 3-1 LDS

Baseball fans were treated to the excitement of a Subway Series in 2000, when neither team should have made it.  In 2006 both teams were stronger, at least offensively.  The Yankees scored runs almost at will after purchasing their all-star lineup and were anchored by the surprising Wang, steady Mussina, and the aged Big Unit.  The Mets, in the swing of Omar Minaya's Latin explosion, had added firepower in the bats of Delgado and Beltran, to augment the youthful talent in Wright and Reyes.  From the start, 2006 seemed to belong to the Mets.  The first sign of trouble came when Pedro Martinez slipped on a wet floor, setting off a cavalcade of injuries that left the Mets' rotation vulnerable.  A healthy Pedro would certainly have a made difference in the playoffs, not to mention adding an even greater element of drama to a series against the Yankees (as his 2005 season proved, Pedro's arm had still yet to catch up to his diminutive body).  The two teams were almost identical on paper, matching up at nearly every position.  In all likelihood fans would have witnessed a knock-down-drag-out slugfest.  And no doubt more fans would've been watching than ultimately tuned in for the STL/DET series, which was one of the least exceptional and lowest rated World Series since the strike. 

In two of the years examined above, the actual Series went seven games (which hasn't happened since 2002).  The 2001 Series played out to be one for the ages, exciting the baseball fan and the nation in the wake of 9/11.  It also proved, that at the end of all things, there is no destiny.  Games 1-6 of the 1997 Series were lopsided, one way or the other.  Not always does the length of a series represent its competitiveness.  2006 was an embarrassing year for Major League Baseball, seeing its worst champion in history.  And of course it was Tony LaRussa's Cardinals.  That man and his boys seem to find a way.  They may do it again this year.

There is no going back.  The playoffs are here to stay and will soon expand.  Most fans embrace the expansion and love the surprise that results.  I admit that I look forward to October every year and watch as many playoff games as responsibility allows.  There is a longing, however, for the days of old when glory was achieved through the long season.  When heroes were made in June just as they are in October.  When the reward for being the best in your league meant getting to battle the best in the other league in front of a national audience.  Television loves the playoffs (though not as much as MLB wishes it would).  And though we no longer get the guarantee of greatness, we do get the element of surprise.  Which is good enough.