2012 Sleeper Picks Revisited

The 2012 regular season is behind us, and it is time to look back and see what fools we were.  Baseball has a way of making fools; this is precisely why so many fools are continually allowed to make a living writing and talking about the game, regardless of how unforgivable their sins.  Leading up to Opening Day 2012, Dizzy and I made a few hair-brained sleeper picks, that is, players previously not thought too much about who were poised to shake the foundations of greatness in the game.  We poured through the statistics, ignored the pundits on television, read the last page of The Book, and sought out the Old Man on the Hill, whose name changes with each season, all in hopes of securing some foresight into the coming season.  After fours day of search, and two pairs each of shoes (they don't make 'em like they used to), we found him, boarded up in the attic room of a dilapidated cabin, peering out through one of those rounded windows that opens on a swivel.  He used to rock back and forth on the porch stoop of the town's general store, smoking black cheroots and flicking pennies at children until the arthritis gobbled up his joints, putting an end to his trips to town.  Legend says he won his fortune on a preseason bet on the 1969 Mets and paid for a hip-replacement picking the 2006 Cardinals.  The man just intuits things.

But upon our meeting the man presently named Cid, it became apparent that arthritis was not the only aflliction plaguing the old man, for his years had obviously taken their toll on his brain.  Words slithered from his cracked lips, dropping to the wooden floor in their pools of drool.   Foolish words about Baltimore and a rookie staff in Oakland and a 20-year dominating baseball and the reemergence of the knuckleball.  We nodded, choked down his cheroots, and lumbered down the hill.  We played a what-if game on the ride back and came up with our own conclusions.  Here is how we did.

Goodbye, Pedro Borbon

1946-2012

"Now pinch-hitting for Pedro Borbon..."

An integral member of the Big Red Machine, perhaps the greatest ballclub every assembled, has died for the second and final time.  No pitcher made more appearances from 1970-1978, an accomplishment even more impressive in light of how the game has evolved.  A rock in the bullpen, Borbon gave the Redlegs the necessary stability to win three pennants.  Pedro Borbon was inducted into the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame (one of the finest in baseball) in 2010.  His death, while unfortunate as all deaths are, gives Reds' fans and baseball fans alike an opportunity to remember the accomplishments of a great career in our greatest game.  Borbon's numbers will never be erased, and better yet, he lives forever in more memories than most can dare to dream.

This is a Picture of Great American Ballpark

So Long, Mr. Wood. It's Been Fun.

Kerry Wood was a good Cub.  His many years and accomplishments will be remembered fondly by all Cubs fans and baseball fans in general.  Baseball players, as we know, die twice.  The first when the game passes them by, the last when life does.  He performed admirably in his baseball life, and millions of fans thank him for it.  May the continuance of his real life play out as grand.  

If you wish to read more of this Cub fan's appreciation for Wood, check out this previous post.

"Speed Provides the One Genuinely Modern Pleasure."

It's that damn Hamilton! He's so hot right now!

The legend of Billy Hamilton is growing.  He is off to an insane start this season, swiping bags at a record pace for the Bakersfield Blaze.  Tales of his speed on the basepaths have been spoken about in hushed tones since the Reds drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2009 amateur draft.  Hamilton was a three-sport star athlete in high school, playing baseball, basketball and football.  He turned down a scholarship to play wide receiver at Mississippi State, deciding to give his attention to the better sport, with  a little help from a $600K signing bonus.  After getting his feet wet in the Gulf Coast League (low level rookie league) at age 18, he had a solid year in advanced rookie ball in Billings, Montana (.318/.383/.456 with 48 SB in 64 games).  But it was last year that Hamilton really began to turn heads when he stole 103 bases in 135 games at low A Dayton.  

The Braves are Really Good

One month of the season in the books, and some things are unfolding as expected.  And of course, most are not.  The Rangers are winning at a rate that far exceeds their capabilities.  The Angels are losing as a similar pace.  The AL East is backwards.  The pot stirrers on ESPN are already attempting to blow hot air against the sails that currently buoy the Orioles atop the standings.  My memory ain't so good, but I do have recollections of very bad teams starting out the season strong, only to have their lack of depth and consistency expose them for the cellar dwellers that they are by the end of May.  The Tigers are mediocre at the moment.  The Cardinals are playing great baseball sans Pujols and La Russa and Duncan.  The Dodgers are just plain silly.  The Cubs are providing the stability that enables us all to stay rooted at this early juncture of the season.  But what surprises me, despite how unsurprising it is, would have to be the success of the Atlanta Braves.  I thought they would be good,  but they may just be better than we all thought.  

Emo Joey Votto

Oriole'd

The weight of 189 losses in two seasons is heavy, man.

2012 Picks -- The Oracle Speaks True!

 

With the 2012 season set to officially underway (despite it making less than zero sense to force SEA and OAK to play regular season games a in the midst of Spring Training), about the time the most productive Americans are pouring their first cup of coffee, it is time for our contribution to the annual nobody-knows-what-the-hell-they're-doing-but-let-us-just-pretend-we-do-anyways preseason prediction extravaganza!  We've scoured the stats, examined our guts, and unearthed our local oracles to come up with our picks for each division, wild card, and playoff advancement.  All leading to the inevitable 2012 Champion.  Also, for good measure, we've taken the liberty of selecting each league's Cy Young and MVP.  Most likely we will be wrong, but it's oh-so-much-fun to be wrong.  Here we go!

This is a Picture of Rollie Fingers and Dizzy Valance

Hot mustache on mustache action.

Sleeper Picks 2012

"And this one belongs to the Reds."

The scene pictured above is one of the happiest moments of my Reds fandom, and also marks the first time since I played little league that I cried after a baseball game.  After toiling through the lost decade that was the aughts (thanks to Jim Bowden's utter ineptitude as a GM), the 2010 Reds surprised almost everyone* and clinched the NL Central on a walk-off home run by Jay Bruce.  This moment has been the high-water mark of the young right fielder's career thus far, but in my (slightly) biased opinion, the best is yet to come.

* Both Curley Bender and I picked the Reds to take the NL Central crown in 2010.

Sleeper Picks 2012

You can't help but root for the husky athlete.

Pablo Sandoval may not be in the best shape of his life, or then again he might be.  But I don't think it will matter much.  It feels like Sandoval has been around the big leagues for a while, and more importantly, it feels like he's been a disappointment for almost as long.  After bursting to prominence in 2009, Sandoval played a minor role on the Championship team of 2010, due to his copious girth combining with the general difficulties of adjusting to the adjustments of the major leagues, causing a significant regression in his production.  Perhaps it's the result of living in the East and digesting the biased media attention that scorns the West Coast, but Sandoval's reammergence as a star in 2011 flew under the radar.  The big man can hit.  And at 25 years of age, his best years may still lie ahead.  2012 could be a huge one for the Panda.

2011 Stats:  117 games

.315/.357/.552   23 HR  153 OPS+  5.5 fWAR

Sandoval's accomplishments last season were certainly undermined by the general atrocity that was the Giants' offense.  It might not be much better this season, but the addition of Melky Cabrera, who some people peg for a solid season at the plate, should help matters.  The rest of the division failed to improve much in terms of player personnel, so the Giants still-stellar pitching should given them a great chance to reclaim the West.  

The big question is whether or not Sandoval can stay on the field.  The Giants will need more than 117 games out of the big man to control the division.  If Sandoval can stay healthy, he will hit.  And he will likely hit the ball very hard.  If he manages to play 140+ games, a 35 homer season is not a stretch.  With their pitching, that may be all the offense the Giants need to win the title.  And if the Giants find themselves playing in October, don't be surprised to hear the Kung Fu Panda talked about as an MVP candidate.  We do all love colorful nicknames.

Off-the-cuff projection:

.293/.377/.581 and 35 HR

Sleeper Picks 2012

Life's gettin' interesting in KC.

A smarter person (or perhaps a clairvoyant), would have picked Alex Gordon to break-out prior to last season, but most saw him as yet another highly touted prospect lost in the fold.  Gordon had a phenomenal 2011, yet many remain hesitant pegging him to continue his superior play.  I don't believe 2011 to be his outlier season.

There's a Party in Johnathan Broxton's Pants...

...and Everett Teaford and Tim Collins are invited.

Sleeper Picks 2012

The Melkman Cometh

This is probably stupid on my part, or at the very least a bit irrational, but bear with me for a moment.  Former baseball blog whipping boy, Melky Cabrera is coming off of a career year in which he put up personal bests in every single offensive category.  Usually outlier years can be chalked up to little more than good fortune, and should be taken with a grain of salt, but there is something to be said for the numbers Cabrera put up last year.   


In 2011, Melky entered his age 26 season, which according to player aging curves is when many players hit their peak.  There have been countless stories of ballplayers struggling through the early part of their careers before ultimately figuring things out and becoming productive players.  In addition to hitting his physical peak, Melky seems to have matured as many people leaving their early 20's do.  He arrived to Royals camp in 2011 in the best shape of his life™, dropping the baby fat he carried with him the beginning of his career and seemed to be more focused on baseball.


2011 Stats:


4.2 fWAR, .305/.339/.470, .349 wOBA, 121 OPS+, .332 BABIP, 18 HR, 20 SB, 706 PA


It's not likely that Cabrera will top, or even match, the numbers he had last season.  The giant spike in BABIP helped get his batting average over .300 for the first time in his career.  This is likely to regress closer to his career .300 BABIP, which will drop his batting average in return, but, the slugging numbers Melky put up last year might be the most encouraging thing about his 2011 campaign.  And if he can sustain his power surge, he might make Brian Sabean look like a smart man.  The park factors of Kauffman stadium, and AT&T Park are both pitcher friendly, so his power numbers shouldn't regress due to a change in venue.  In fact, AT&T Park is more home run friendly to left handed hitters than Kauffman, so there may be reason to be optimistic for higher home run totals for the Melk Man this season.


The Giants will be leaning heavily on Cabrera to provide some punch to an offense that was rather anemic last season.  The NL West should be an extremely winnable division with the D'Backs providing the only real competition for the division crown.  Replacing the lack of production that Andres Torres provided last season with Melky Cabrera may help the Giants pick up an extra win or two, and in a tight division race, those marginal wins are worth their weight in gold.  Let's just hope we don't see too much of this out of Melky in 2012.


Off the Cuff Projection:
.280/.330/.450 and 25 HR

This is a Picture of Jeff Karstens

Hurr Durr Derp

Sleeper Picks 2012

A Bright Light in Wrigley

A move to the hustle and bustle of Wrigley Field should have brought Matt Garza greater fame and notoriety.  Unfortunately, while his former employers (TB) continued their stellar play, Garza's Cubs continued to move in the wrong direction.  His pockmarked 10-10 record put him in most fans' rearviewmirror and didn't get him much attention from the national baseball media.  But 2011 was the best season of Garza's career as well as being one of the best in the National League.  The Cubs won't be much better this season, but they will at least have a more clearly defined identity.  And at 29, Garza is still in the prime of his career.  Oh, and he's pitching for a contract, which sometimes means something.

Garza is probably the best player on the 2012 Cubs.  Starlin Castro may prove himself more valuable, but right now Garza's the guy.  Sadly, he only gets to play in 30-35 games.  And even sadder, there is a good chance he won't finish the season with the Cubs.  As Epstein and Hoyer rebuild the franchise, Garza's trade value may be too high to pass up.  A mid-season trade will affect his Cy Young chances, but don't be surprised if Garza finds himself among the league's best, whichever league that turns out to be.

Matt Garza 2011 stats  198 IP

5 fWAR  118 ERA+  8.95 K/9  2.86 BB/9  0.64 HR/9  46.3 GB%  .306 BABIP  2.95 FIP 

Garza stands out in K/9, HR/9, and GB%.  Garza has the stuff to dominate hitters and the command to keep the ball in the ballpark.  Keeping the ball on the ground is good, but he'll run into some problems with the Cubs infield again, as they are not among the best.  And he still walks too many batters.  But his BABIP is similar to league-average and his FIP suggests even better things to come.  

The Cubs will not be competitive in 2012, but that won't affect Garza too much (except perhaps in wins).  One of the hallmarks of his career thus far has been his fierce competitiveness.  Pitching in a contract year on the heels of his best season, Garza is poised to be even better.  It will be interesting to see where he finishes.

Sleeper Picks 2012

Dan Haren -- Pitcher

We all like to make picks, predictions, etc.  It's fun and quite gratifying when you select a player to have a break-out year, and he actually comes through.  Even more so when nobody else seems to finger that player for greatness.  Of course, we are all almost always wrong.  Except maybe Bill James or Tom Tango.  They are right slightly more than the rest of us, so inevitably we use their predictions as a guide.  Dizzy Valance and myself make annual picks for top Cy Young finishers and MVP finishers.  Often we are wrong.  Although credit goes to Dizzy for picking both King Felix and Halladay to win the award in 2010.  I thought myself quite clever to pick Ubaldo Jimenez to pick up the hardware in 2010 when few people bought into his potential.  He almost made me look like a genius.  Or idiot savant.  Likewise for my pick of Jered Weaver to win it in 2011.  Almost.  Our picks for the awards and divisions will be coming along with those of everybody else.  For now, we'll just while away at observing those players who look to break-out in 2012, like Jimenez in 2010 or Weaver in 2011.

All-time Pitching Rotations--Vol. IV

The greatness of a pitching rotation continues to be discussed mostly in simple terms of wins and losses, despite how much more we now know.  Wins are what the game is all about--getting them however possible.  But wins are a team stat, not an individual one.  Few teams won as many games in a three year span as the Baltimore Orioles of 1969-1971.  They won a combined 118 games en route to three straight pennants and one World Series title (1970).  Much of the credit for their success has been lauded on their pitching staff, led by a young Jim Palmer.  1971 was the standout year, as all four starters reached that magical benchmark of 20 wins.  But were all those wins the result of dominant pitching, or the byproduct of a great team executing in all facets of the game?

This is a Picture of Hipster Lance Berkman

Just eating a sandwich and rockin' a deep V.

ManBearZim

Just what in the name of Bill Veeck is going on down in Florida this off-season?  It seems as if the Rays and Marlins are trying to out-zany each other.  The Marlins fired the opening shots with new technicolor uniforms, aquariums on the playing field, and an acid induced home run structure.  The Rays retaliated with DJ Kitty, and now this.  The Zim Bear:  Half Don Zimmer, half Teddy Bear, half morphine induced fever dream.  Get your own on June 29th when the Rays take on the Oakland A's (free to the first 10,000 fans), or just go ahead and do an eBay saved search now.

All-Time Pitching Rotations--Vol. III

The Big Three: A novelization by Nicholas Sparks.

The night sky was dark.  Not like coal, but dark like the undulating waves of Barry Zito's hair, cascading in folds across his laconic brow as the cool breezy Bay breezes flowed into the stadium.  The lights came on.  The crowd filed in, rapt in anxious excitement as they prepared for battle.  A hotdog to calm the nervous swishing in their bellies, an ice cold beer to numb their nerves, which were dancing a waltz through their quivering bodies.  The grass is green as freshly mowed grass, the rigid blades tickling the players' cleats like the love-hair prickles of a wanton lover...oh sugar!  This is a baseball blog, not the newest from literary laureate Nicholas Sparks.  You'll have to wait for that one.  It will be published too soon.

Our search for the greatest pitching rotation in history marches on with The Big Three from Oakland, and that other guy.  They were good, boyos.  Even better than I remembered.  But do they stack up to the best?

Through the Looking Glass

LOLcats are taking over baseball.  It started in 2010 when the Seattle Mariners had an I Can Haz Cheezburger promotional night complete with a cat bobble-head, then the Tampa Bay Rays started playing this video on the scoreboard between innings.  The slightly terrifying image you see above is DJ Kitty, the newest mascot of the Tampa Bay Rays (yes, that is a cowbell hanging from its neck).  If the O RLY owl makes his MLB debut this year, may God have mercy on us all.

R.I.P. Gary Carter

1954-2012

All-Time Pitching Rotations -- Vol. II

A trio of justifiably self-satisfied young men.

Any conversation about pitching greatness eventually comes around to the Atlanta Braves of the 1990s.  Most of the time, the conversation both begins and ends there.  Growing up in Atlanta during this period, despite being a Cubs fan, I had the supreme pleasure of watching these guys pitch an awful lot.  The summers were great for a baseball fan down here: watch the Cubs flounder lovingly at 2:20ET, dirty the side of the house with tennis ball-shaped red clay splotches, watch the Braves play beautifully at 7:10ET.  Why in the hell did I not shift my allegiance, especially with no actual ties to the city of Chicago?  That's an answer for another day, but surely, in part, because I was a fool.  Although my Cubs fanship will one day pay huge dividends.  Besides, failure is all a part of it, and the Cubs have only failed for twenty-three years that have mattered to me personally.  Back on topic...the Atlanta Braves were great.  They should have won more World Series Championships, and they earned more than the five pennants they won.  But did they have the best rotation of all time?

33 Reasons to be Excited for the 2012 Season

These guys are excited. Are you?

The long wait is nearly over.  Pitchers and catchers report in less than a week, marking the beginning of the baseball new year.  Here are 33 reasons why we here at Crum-Bum Beat are excited about the 2012 season.

All-time Pitching Rotations -- Vol. I

Dominant...as advertised.

I will be embarking on a leisurely exploration of the greatest pitching rotations in baseball history, operating from memory and stories told and bold claims made.  This will not be a perfect, or even comprehensive study, as I don't have the patience or knowledge or time to delve into the multitude of pitching statistics at my disposal.  Nor do I understand all of them yet.  And while baseball is a passion, it is not my only one, nor am I fortunate enough to make a living delving into all of baseball's intracacies.  Plus, the lady in my life, while tolerant of my baseball obsession, can only excuse my incessant baseball meanderings to a certain point.  And keeping her happy takes precedence over any baseball analysis I intend to indulge.  So excuse the holes that surely exist in my findings, and feel free to fill them as you see fit.  This is, after all, just for fun.  So let's us get on with, do it please ya.

This is a Picture of Pete Rose

Notice how much hairier his right arm is.

Rickey-isms

Rickey Henderson was a hell of a ballplayer, a once in a lifetime talent that demanded your undivided attention any time he was on the field.  Bill James was quoted as saying, "If you could split him [Henderson] in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers," and his career 114 WAR comes close to backing up that claim.  During his peak, he stole bases at a dizzying pace, three times notching triple digit steals in a single season.  The game today is certainly different than it was twenty years ago, but consider that this year's stolen base leader was Michael Bourn with 61 steals, Rickey bested that number ten times in his career (with one of those times occurring in his age 39 season!).  It is a pretty safe bet to consider Rickey's career stolen base total of 1,406 an unbreakable record, right up there with Cal's consecutive games, Cy's career wins and DiMaggio's streak.  Granted, the effectiveness of stolen bases as sound baseball strategy has been diminished a bit by the sabermetric movement, but Rickey was not a one-trick pony; he could hit for power (297 career home runs), get on base (.401 career OBP), and field his position as well. 

It wasn't just his on-field talents that made Rickey one of the most memorable players in baseball history, though.  Rickey knew that part of his job was to be an entertainer.  He would pimp home runs, snatch fly balls out of the air with a flick of his glove, and provide reporters and fans endless fodder with stories of Rickey being Rickey.  It was said that before every game he would stand naked in front of a full length mirror and say to himself "Rickey's the best," for several minutes, he would take a stretch limo to games where the ballpark was less than a mile away from the team hotel, he would check into hotels under assumed names to avoid the press, he frequently forgot the names of his coaches, managers, and GM's, he once had to miss three games in August due to frostbite after falling asleep on an ice pack, he played two seasons of Independent League ball after no major league teams would sign him, and the tales go on and on. 

Rickey was also one of baseball's greatest wordsmiths, on par with Casey Stengel and Yogi Berra.  So, follow me after the jump for some of Rickey's most quotable quotations. 

Of the Times...

Oriole Park at Camden Yards by Max Mason

The scene is instant, whole and wonderful.  In its beauty and design that vision of the soaring stands, the pattern of forty thousand empetalled faces, the velvet and unalterable geometry of the playing field, and the small lean figures of the players, set there, lonely, tense and waiting in their places, bright, desperate solitary atoms encircled by that huge wall of nameless faces, is incredible.  And more than anything it is the light, the miracle of light and shade and color--the crisp blue light that swiftly slants out from the soaring stands and, deepening to violet, begins to march across the velvet field and towards the pitcher's box, that gives the thing its single and incomparable beauty.
     The batter stands swinging his bat and grimly waiting at the plate, crouched, tense, the catcher, crouched, the umpire, bent, hands clasped behind his back, and peering forward.  All of them are set now in the cold blue of that slanting shadow, except the pitcher who stands out there all alone, calm, desperate, and forsaken in his isolation, with the gold-red swiftly fading light upon him, his figure legible with all the resolution, despair and lonely dignity which that slanting, somehow fatal light can give him.
                                                                                           --Thomas Wolfe, Of Time and the River

It has been said that baseball is who we were, and football is who we've become.  But who has ever written about football as beautifully as Thomas Wolfe does above?  Baseball will undoubtedly live longer.  At the very least on the green fields in our minds.  

Line-Up for Tomorrow

It's still winter, though we are almost there.  To pass the time, I say let's read some poetry.  Why the hell not?  Come along, if it please ya...

Found!: the Dutch Stache

In our continuing coverage of Derek Holland's mustache; it appears to have been stolen by actor Michael Cera.  This is certainly a big story, and rest assured, we here at Crum-Bum beat have our best guys on it.  More on this as it develops.

Trader Frank vs. Trader Jack

A small part of the fun in delving through baseball's long, glorious history is the useless playing of the 'what if' game.  It's almost as useless as making preseason predictions, but we can't help doing it all the same.  What if Ted Williams and Joe Dimaggio had swapped places?  Certainly many more homeruns for both, and a very different individual public perception for each.  What if ballplayers were excused from military service during WWII?  Williams may own all the major hitting records.  What if the Red Sox and Yankees weren't so slow in shaking their racist sensibilities in the aftermath of Branch Rickey signing Jackie Robinson?  Willie Mays should've been in Boston, either hitting in front of, or behind Williams.  What fun would've been had in Boston.  The Yankee dynasty would have likely extended beyond the end of the Mantle Era.  Would Georgie Porgie have gotten his hands on the team if they hadn't fallen from prominence?  There are countless of these scenarios, and they are fun to postulate about in barrooms.  But here's a silly one that surely would've created some exciting roster instability.  What if Frank Lane and Jack McKeon had been GMs at the same time?  Ooh  Boy!  No player's job would've been safe.

Examining Pitch Type Linear Weights

This is apropos of nothing really, but it's the middle of January and we've got to talk about something...  So, let's take a look at which pitchers threw the most successful pitch types in 2011 according to FanGraphs' pitch value leaderboards.  This metric, "uses linear weights by count and by event and breaks it down by each pitch type so you can see, in runs, the actual effectiveness of each pitch."  The number shown for each pitch type is the cumulative runs saved above average for each pitch type a pitcher throws, the higher the number the better (for a thorough breakdown of how this is calculated, click here).

Baseball and the Movies : Game 6

The camera moves along a rooftop patio overlooking the East River.  The sun is just rising, casting an optimistic glow on a gray New York City morning.  A man, dressed neatly in ironed slacks and shirt sits in a chair, fighting the wind to read the newspaper, drinking a cup of coffee.  He stands and walks to the railing.  He scans the river, the bridge extending across, the rotting cityscape of the luxury elite.  He looks down on the city and says to himself, "This Could Be It".  The movie cuts to a tracking shot.  The centerfield gate to Shea Stadium opens, and we move across the green outfield grass toward homeplate.  Thirteen hours until game time, we are told.

This is a Picture of Luis Tiant

A gentleman of leisure.

Best Pitcher of the 1980s: Beating the Poor Dead Horse

Two fine pitchers...two Hall of Fame mustaches.

I have only recently entered into the annual Hall of Fame debate conducted by thousands of people, most of which have no significant influence on the vote (including myself).  And already I have grown weary of the vitriolic arguments for or against certain players.  In researching for this post, I quickly tired of the argument I was going to make against Jack Morris for the Hall of Fame.  The guy was a very good pitcher who is now being dragged through the ringer that results from straddling the fence between an older generation that evaluates the game and its players with archaic measures and a narrow range of focus, and the new generation that takes advantage of all available tools to better understand baseball and all its intricacies.  The old generation remains stubborn in the face of progress because there is a lot more work involved now, and I imagine a creeping feeling that what they've always known about the game amounts to not nearly as much as prided upon.  And they don't like it.  Gut vs. Brain.  The game pulls at both but should lean more heavily on the brain.  And the new generation, the stat-heads, as we are so derisively regarded, fuel this ongoing fire in part because it is so damn frustrating to have all these resources that provide clearer, more interesting representations of the game that are all but ignored by the baseball mainstream, from ESPN to broadcasts to the BBWAA.  The new generation is winning the war, which will make baseball better in the long run, but the old curmudgeons don't like it one bit.  And Jack Morris is the man chosen to represent that older generation's outlook on the game.*

Zombie Baseball Cards

A late night Google image search of Fernando Valenzuela led me to find this delightful piece of baseball ephemera.  Chicago-area artist Jeremy Scheuch has an entire series of zombie baseball cards, based on the 1986 Topps set.  Do yourself a favor and check out the entire gallery here.  

Kerry Wood, Post-Modern Mr. Cub

Looks a lot like an 'M', or if you prefer, an inverted 'W'

Kerry Wood is still a Chicago Cub, signing a one-year deal for $3 million to set-up cardiac closer extraordinaire Carlos Marmol.  As a lifelong Cubs fan, I was thrilled when Wood signed with the Cubs prior to the 2011 season, coming off his brilliant flash of dominance with the Yankees, and even more so upon learning the sentimental details of his contract negotiations with then GM Jim Hendry following Ron Santo's funeral.  Wood took a discount to come back home to Chicago.  Such a mutual display of loyalty between player and management has always been rare and is almost unheard of in modern baseball business.  But coming into this offseason,  I've had a difficult time shifting my weight on either side of apathy.

Does Pitching Win Championships?

The Reds are trying to find out this year.  After a disappointing 2011 campaign, Walt Jocketty and company have made some shrewd moves this off-season and have addressed the team's biggest issue; pitching.  As a team, the 2011 Reds were on the wrong side of league average in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, HR/9, and K/BB.  They didn't have a much trouble scoring runs (2nd in the NL in runs scored per game), but the whole run prevention thing proved to be a little tricky for the Redlegs.   Now, in addition to the Mat Latos acquisition (which we discussed here), the Reds have a two-headed monster at the back end of what was already a pretty decent bullpen.  

A Message From Hall of Famer Barry Larkin

The newest member of the Baseball Hall of Fame has an important message for next year's additions to the ballot the kids. Congrats, Barry.  You earned it.

Edgar Martinez -- Hall of Famer

Last year : received 32.9% of the vote


The late, great Red Smith referred to the Designated Hitter as "that loathsome ploy".  I agree with this, but the DH ploy has survived in the American League for almost forty years now, and in all likelihood, will soon spread to the National League shortly after realignment.  In an attempt to prepare for my beloved Senior Circuit abandoning one of the fundamental foundations of baseball, that being a game of nine innings featuring nine players, I keep the sentiments of Ted Williams close in mind:


"Baseball should adopt the football specialist.  A guy who would do nothing but hit.  I hate it when I see a pitcher up there with the bases loaded, some half-athlete who swings like an old maid, rear end flying, can't run a step, gets about one hit a year.  Why not have a specialist who could bat two times a game for weak hitters like that?  Then great hitters like Mantle and Mays could stick around longer...when their legs are gone."


I don't really agree with this, but I can see the point.  Although it is important to keep in mind that it was made by a guy who loved to hit and never cared much for the field.  I mention all this because the only thing keeping Edgar Martinez out of the Hall of Fame is the fact that he spent nearly 75% of his career as a DH.  His prime years offensively place him in the upper echelon of the Hall of Fame: from 1990-2001, he posted a batting average of .321 and an on-base percentage of .429, both awe-inspiring numbers.  In 1995, the year Mo Vaughn inexplicably won the AL MVP, Martinez had a line of .356/.479/.628.  It is one of the greatest offensive seasons in AL history.  To cap off that tremendous season, he knocked the clinching double in the ALDS vs. the Yankees that saved Seattle baseball.


Martinez didn't often play in the field, and when he did, he was a below average third baseman.  But there are many terrible fielders in the Hall of Fame, several of whom were not nearly as effective at the plate.  If the DH gimmick had expired as all gimmicks should, Martinez would have been a poor fielder but great hitter, and would likely have already been enshrined in Cooperstown.  But there is a DH*, and as stated above, it will likely pervade all of baseball soon.  Martinez isn't simply the best DH of all-time, he is one of the best hitters of all time.  And he deserves a plaque alongside the best of baseball company.


*Martinez is being kept out of the HoF by writers who frown on the DH, even though these are likely the same writers who have grown apathetic toward the DH's role in baseball and will show minimal outrage when it is instituted in the National League.  Realignment and constant inter-league play will bring the DH discussion to the forefront, and in all likelihood, the DH will win for financial, and I suppose pragmatic reasons.  The only potential positive effect of Edgar Martinez continually missing the Hall, would be the added negative emphasis placed on the career DH.  If players see that being a DH will exclude them from the Hall regardless of their greatness, perhaps they will complain to their union rep, and perhaps the DH will lose some of its supporters.  And perhaps it may one day go away.  I doubt it, but either way, Edgar Martinez should be in the Hall of Fame.*

Tim Raines -- Hall of Famer

Last year: received 37.5% of the vote

Since his first year of eligibility, Tim "Rock" Raines has been the one of the players the saber-crowd has been promoting for Hall of Fame enshrinement.  With Blyleven now in, the focus can now narrow on Raines finding his way to Cooperstown.  It seems that with every passing year advanced stats are making their way further into the consciousness of mainstream baseball.  Sure, there are still Murray Chasses and Mitch Williamses (and seemingly every writer from Boston) out there railing against reason and progressive thought, yet slowly but surely it is beginning to take hold.  There has already been a great deal of virtual ink spilled on the subject of Raines' Hall of Fame case (Tom Tango and Jonah Keri have an entire website devoted to the subject), so I'll try and keep this brief.

Raines was an absolutely dominant player during his peak, and just because that peak was only five years long, doesn't make it any less impressive.  From 1983 to 1987 Raines accumulated 33.5 WAR, averaged .318/.406/.467 with an OPS+ of 142, stole 355 bases at an 88.3% success rate, was 1st in the NL in Avg. and OBP in 1986, was an All-Star all five years, and finished no lower than 12th in MVP voting each year.  Raines had another great year in 1992 (6.1 WAR), and remained a useful player into his mid-30's.  In fact, his only negative WAR year was his final year, as a 39 year old playing for the Mariners.  His career 70.9 WAR total bests Hall of Fame outfielders Tony Gwynn, Lou Brock, Dave Winfield and Andre Dawson.  However, Raines continues to be an afterthought for Hall of Fame voters.

I suspect we will see a significant increase in votes for Raines this year, but I doubt he will make the nearly 40% jump needed to get his plaque.  This is even more unfortunate when you consider the glut of talent that will become eligible in the next three years.  Raines was an unequivocally great player, one of the best leadoff hitters and base-stealers the game has ever seen.  He just so happened to come up at the same time as the guy who is considered to be the very best leadoff hitter and base-stealer of all time.  Hopefully some day he will get his due.

Larry Walker -- Hall of Famer

Last year : received 20.3% of the vote


Larry Walker will not make the Hall of Fame this year.  Nor will he be enshrined anytime soon.  The reasons for this are simple: (1) he had a relatively short career (17 seasons, only 12 of which he had over 400 plate appearances), (2) he played the prime of his career in Colorado, and... (3) he played the prime of his career in Colorado.


As for #1 : While career longevity is important in determining the quality of a ballplayer, it also creates contradictory arguments.  To stay in the game for 18-22 seasons, a ballplayer must be good, obviously.  But a ballplayer must also be lucky in health (and in some cases, major wars).  A long career is what allows players to accumulate the counting stats that most voters and fans value so much when deciphering the greatness of a given ballplayer...3,000 hits; 500 home runs; 300 wins; etc.  These are all great numbers.  I will never argue against a member of the 3,000 hit club or 300 win club from entering the Hall.  However, good health, reputation, and salary play a huge role in allowing a player the opportunity to reach these milestones.*  Larry Walker was an injury-prone player, as his only 12 full seasons show.  While unfortunate, his poor health does not take away from his greatness when on the field.  During those 12 seasons he was among the best of all-time, and certainly one of the most dominant of his era.


*the 3,000 hit club is the most precarious, even with the steroid taint on hitting 500 home runs.  A player can accumulate hits over a career without being a dominant, or even great player.  If 2,500 of those hits are singles, the feat is not overwhelmingly impressive. 


As for #2 : Colorado, at least until recently, was a wasteland for publicity.  While Larry Walker was tearing up the NL West, not many people in the East were even paying attention.


As for #3 : That thin air in pre-humidor Coors Field.  This fact should not be discounted.  Walker's numbers should be viewed in context.  He hit .381/.562/.710 at Coors Field, mind-boggling numbers.  Away from Coors, not nearly as good, but still among the league's best, especially considering most hitters (even great ones) perform better at home than on the road.  Players like Stan Musial are few and far between.  In hindsight, it is unfortunate that Walker played his prime years in Colorado as this is now the strongest argument against his enshrinement.  His career suggests that he would have been a dominant player in any ballpark, certainly with less superhuman-like numbers, but a dominate player nonetheless.


MON : Ages 22-27 : .281/.357/.483
COL : Ages 28-36 : .334/.426/.618
STL : Ages 37-38 : .286/.387/.520


In the strike shortened season of 1994, his last in Montreal, Walker put up a .322/.394/.587 line, belting 44 doubles and 19 home runs in 103 games.  With injuries plaguing the next two seasons, Walker's peak had to wait until age 30.  And his peak was remarkable.  While a player's home ballpark should be taken into account, especially in borderline cases, Larry Walker is not borderline.  In addition to his tremendous hitting, he was a stellar outfielder, winning seven gold gloves and owning one of the most feared throwing arms in baseball, he stole bases and ran them well, was considered a great teammate, and at times sported some stellar facial hair.  To help alleviate your concerns over the pre-humidor Coors Field effect, Larry Walker's career OPS+, which takes into account park effects and league comparisons, is 140.  That is 5th highest among right fielders all-time.  He ranks higher than Reggie Jackson, Al Kaline, Tony Gwynn, Al Simmons, Roberto Clemente, and Dave Winfield.  They are all in the Hall of Fame, and those are just the right fielders.  The list of Hall of Fame left fielders and center fielders behind Walker is much much longer.


So we can't punish Larry Walker for playing in Colorado.  Somebody had to.  If we keep Walker out, does that mean we have to keep Todd Helton out as well?  That doesn't sit well with this baseball fan.

Barry Larkin -- Hall of Famer

Last year: received 62.1% of the vote

This is an easy one for me.  In a lot of respects, Barry Larkin was baseball for me as a kid.  He was one of, if not the best player on my favorite team for the majority of my formative years. Larkin was drafted by the Reds the year after I was born, and retired when I was twenty years old.  Players spending their entire career with the same team is a rarity in the era of free agency, and even more rare when the player is a homegrown talent.  Along with Pete Rose, Larkin is somewhat of a folk hero in Cincinnati, but it seems to me that he is slightly underrated outside of the Queen City.

Larkin spent the first half of his career overshadowed by Ozzie Smith's defensive wizardry (and gymnastic feats), and the second half of his career in an era when shortstops were showing impressive power.  But, Larkin quietly went about his business and showed baseball fans that a slick fielding shortstop could also effectively swing the bat.  During his peak (from 1988-2000) he had 8 seasons of +5 War, 11 All-star appearances, 9 Silver Slugger awards, 3 Gold gloves, an MVP award and a World Series ring.  

Larkin was a true five-tool player, and it seems that the fact that he was so well rounded has actually hurt his candidacy for Cooperstown.  There was not one thing Larkin did that made him stand out, which made him easier to overlook.  He had great range, a great arm, could hit for both power and average, and he could steal a few bases.  But, it was the sum of all these attributes that made him the great player that he was.  Consider career WAR totals for modern era shortstops that played the majority of their career at short and you can see that Larkin is in some impressive company:

Alex Rodriguez - 112.5

Cal Ripken, Jr. - 99.7

Luke Appling - 84.7

Joe Cronin - 75.4

Derek Jeter - 74.4

Arky Vaughan - 74.3 

Robin Yount* - 74.1 

Barry Larkin - 70.6

Ozzie Smith - 70.3

Lou Boudreau - 69.8

Pee Wee Reese - 69.7

The two active players here (Jeter and A-Rod) are both presumptive shoo-ins to make it to Cooperstown, though by the time Rodriguez's contract with the Yankees is up he will not have the majority of his games at short.  Everyone else on this list, with the exception of Larkin is already in the Hall of Fame.  The consensus opinion seems to be that Larkin will join his peers this year and be enshrined among the greatest shortstops of all time.  Personally, I couldn't be happier about it.

*Robin Yount very narrowly makes the cut on this list with only 51.79% of his games played at SS.