Sleeper Picks 2012

"And this one belongs to the Reds."

The scene pictured above is one of the happiest moments of my Reds fandom, and also marks the first time since I played little league that I cried after a baseball game.  After toiling through the lost decade that was the aughts (thanks to Jim Bowden's utter ineptitude as a GM), the 2010 Reds surprised almost everyone* and clinched the NL Central on a walk-off home run by Jay Bruce.  This moment has been the high-water mark of the young right fielder's career thus far, but in my (slightly) biased opinion, the best is yet to come.

* Both Curley Bender and I picked the Reds to take the NL Central crown in 2010.

It's funny how expectations shape the narrative of a fanbase.  Jay Bruce was drafted by the Reds 12th overall in the 2005 draft, he was the number one overall prospect in baseball in 2007, and burst on to the scene in 2008, capturing the hearts of Cincinnati baseball fans with his torrid first month in the majors.  Joey Votto on the other hand, was a second round pick, that took 5 years to develop into a major leaguer.  Votto has exceeded everyone's wildest expectations by winning an MVP and becoming one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball, while Bruce is unfairly maligned by much of the local media and fans for not living up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon him.  

The 2011 season was a step back in the development of Jay Bruce.  He was even streakier at the plate than he was in 2010, he seemed a step slower than normal, and his defense was not nearly the gold glove level it was the previous year.  He started the year with a Juan Pierre-ian OPS of .687 in March and April, then turned it around and was the best player in all of baseball with a 1.140 OPS and 12 HRs in the month of May, before returning to sub-replacement level in June.  Bruce finished the season on a more even keel, but the hot streaks he goes on, the ones where it seems impossible to get the guy out, are what give fans hope that one day he can get it together for an entire season and be the guy Reds fans dreamed on when he was a prospect. 

2011 Stats:

3.3 fWAR, .256/.341/.474, .346 wOBA, 119 OPS+, .297 BABIP, 32 HR, 664 PA

This year will be Bruce's age 25 season, and his 5th overall in the majors.  With the park he plays in, and the flashes of brilliance he has shown, it's not far fetched to imagine a 40 HR season being possible.  Channeling my inner Joe Morgan, if Bruce can be consistently consistent, anything is possible.  I would look for Bruce to regain some of his defensive prowess as well, due to the fact that he dropped 15 pounds this off-season and appears to be in much better shape than he was last year.

As has been noted before, the Reds are all-in right now, trying to get back to the playoffs in order to scrape together enough pennies to afford a long term deal for Joey Votto.  They have made some big splashes this off-season, but they need a breakout year from Jay Bruce to get them where they want to go.  

Homer Projection:

.290/.360/.550, 42 HRs