All-time Pitching Rotations -- Vol. I

Dominant...as advertised.

I will be embarking on a leisurely exploration of the greatest pitching rotations in baseball history, operating from memory and stories told and bold claims made.  This will not be a perfect, or even comprehensive study, as I don't have the patience or knowledge or time to delve into the multitude of pitching statistics at my disposal.  Nor do I understand all of them yet.  And while baseball is a passion, it is not my only one, nor am I fortunate enough to make a living delving into all of baseball's intracacies.  Plus, the lady in my life, while tolerant of my baseball obsession, can only excuse my incessant baseball meanderings to a certain point.  And keeping her happy takes precedence over any baseball analysis I intend to indulge.  So excuse the holes that surely exist in my findings, and feel free to fill them as you see fit.  This is, after all, just for fun.  So let's us get on with, do it please ya.


There was much excitement and anticipation when the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee going into the 2011 season.  Many bold claims about the greatest pitching staff ever assembled, or at the very least, among the best.  It's good to be excited.  That's a big reason for baseball's existence.  Not being a Phillies fan, and already growing quite weary of their NL East domination, I brushed much of this aside, not wanting to believe that Cliff Lee was as good as many claimed and on and on.  Though I have long been a Roy Halladay fan, getting acquainted with him, I am only somewhat ashamed to say, from old video games more so than seeing him pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays.  He won a lot of games for my virtual Chicago Cubs.  


But I kick off this exploration with the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies because they were in fact quite awesome.  As with the rotations to come, I will mostly concentrate on the top 4 men in the rotation, because even in the modern 5-man rotation, there really are essentially just four horses that drag the stagecoach to the end of the line.  The fifth man usually cries with a full bladder and a dry tongue and gets left behind at the watering hole.  The 2011 Phillies are a bit different as their 4th and 5th man swapped places throughout the year.  Things did not play out as expected, as is often the case in baseball.


A clunky set of stats, for I am no expert at making tables.  Only making headaches as a result of trying.


R. Halladay  19W  2.35ERA  2.20FIP  164ERA+  7.4rWAR
C. Lee  17W  2.40ERA  2.60FIP  161ERA+  6.9rWAR
C. Hamels  14W  2.79ERA  3.05FIP  138ERA+  5.4rWAR
V. Worley  11W  3.01ERA  3.32FIP  129ERA+  2.8rWAR
R. Oswalt  9W  3.69ERA  3.44FIP  105ERA+  1.7rWAR

Team Totals : 529 runs allowed; 102 team wins
Top 4 Totals : 22.5rWAR  148ERA+

The numbers speak pretty well for themselves.  As I expect from most great staffs, there are three main horses with marginal support from the fourth and fifth men.  As predicted Halladay, Lee, and Hamels were very very good in 2011.  Both Halladay and Lee had Cy Young caliber seasons, with Hamels having a dynamic all-star worthy season.  Oswalt was expected to be better, but his back is all but broken.  Worley was the surprise, winning them 11 games and performing far better than replacement level. 

The top 3 certainly rank among best in the history of the game.  The minimal differences between their ERA and FIP clearly indicate dominance on the mound.  They were good enough to lead the Phillies to 102 victories and the outright pennant.  When judging the greatness of a pitching rotation, it is important not place any importance on an ultimate World Series Title, especially in the Wild Card Era, as the greatness of a rotation is only evident throughout the course of the entire season.  And the Phillies of 2011 were great.  It could be an outlier year, but we will just have to eagerly wait and see.  2012 will only be their second year together, and possibly their last, as modern baseball economics all but prohibits dynastic rule.  And the Phillies certainly invested some of their money poorly and may not be able to resign Cole Hamels.  It will be interesting to see how they stack up to the rotations that the gloss of time has painted as great.  But with 22.5WAR between the top 4, I suspect the 2011 Phillies will stand up quite well. 


In future explorations, multiple season stretches will be touched upon, but ultimately I will focus on the year I deem the most representative of a rotation's greatness.