The stove is already getting warm with Atlanta's trading of Derek Lowe to Cleveland. The steady but aged sinkerballer will now be 'sweating it out' by the Cuyahoga River. They have some good breweries up there, so I expect Lowe to have a bounce back year. The real heat so far this off season is coming from the managerial hot stove, with the Cubs, Red Sox, and Cardinals battling over their next skipper. The General Manager search is in full swing in Anaheim (where the brass hope to find someone who can offset the Vernon Wells debacle) and in Baltimore (where we all hope that once great baseball town can lift up its bootstraps). It seems the MacPhail magic has worn off.
Once these decisions are made, the ball should start rolling for player movement, with much action likely before the Winter Meetings. The four major free agents are well known and much lusted after: Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Wilson. The risk/reward ratio is murky on each one of them. It will be interesting to see which GM stakes his career on which free agent, or as seems to be the case in the modern age, which GM will stake his successor's career on a particular free agent.
Jim Hendry is out of Chicago. Now Theo Esptein has the pleasure of trying to rebuild the shallow Cubs with the dead weight of Zambrano's remaining $19 million for the 2012 season and Soriano's more egregious $54 million thru 2014. Steve Bartman would likely post a higher WAR, and at least he would be more fun to root for. But it's no longer Jim Hendry's problem. Just as Theo Epstein is now out of Boston and no longer has to burden himself with Lackey's asinine contract and the albatross that will become Carl Crawford's deal. Which brings us to the future of Jose Reyes, whose legs might clasp the shackles around an organization's ankles.
I have long been a fan of Carl Crawford, initially because as a Nebraska fan, I liked that he was a Cornhusker. I even picked him to win the 2011 MVP. Though I still felt his contract was an exercise in hopeful foolishness. Because when you get right down to it, even if Crawford matched his 2010 season each year for the duration of his contract, I still don't think he's worth $142 million. His 2011 season may prove to be an aberration in hindsight of the next few years, but he won't be the player the Red Sox hoped for through 2017 for the simple reason that speed ages faster than any other athletic ability. And speed is his game. Despite the glimmer of power he displayed in 2010, Fenway is not the park in which to exploit it. His power numbers will remain close to the same, and his legs will get heavier. And the same goes for Reyes, who in light of the Crawford contract, has every right to believe himself worth just as much money and for just as many years. But which club will be foolish enough to offer it?
Speed is exciting. Fans love it. Pitchers hate it. And with the pendulum swinging back toward the pitcher, it will greatly influence that razor-thin difference between winning and losing. But speed is a dangerous thing on which to spend big money.
Reyes was one of the most exciting players from '05-'08, stealing over sixty bases and hitting double digits in triples each season. But despite winning his first batting title in 2011 (though he did it passively, Where have you gone, Ted Williams?) Reyes has been on a steady decline over the past three seasons. His OBP has never been exemplary (a career .341), and he hasn't stolen forty bases since '08. His prowess at shortstop is debatable, and his physique resembles that of Chinese porcelain. He is still a dynamic player, one that will make his team better...in the short term. His health cannot be counted on, and given that many of his injuries have been below the waist, neither can his prolonged productivity.
Mets majority owner Fred Wilpon faces the most pressure. He needs Reyes to maintain faith among the fanship. But what he doesn't need is a big longterm contract as he claws his way out of financial disaster. The Mets reak of desperation, something new for Wilpon, I would imagine. It takes a brilliant financial mind to become as successful as Wilpon, but then it takes either a liar and a cheat or a fool to fall into the PONZI disaster he and Mets now find themselves. The future of the Mets, and perhaps of Reyes, relies on which jacket Wilpon dons this off season. Sandy Alderson just may save his ass.
The reasonable solution would be for Reyes to sign a three year deal. He shouldn't feel confident signing one any longer. The price tag can be high. I'm okay with as much as $17 million per year. But only for those three years. After that his annual salary should drop drastically to coincide with his declining skills. He will likely seek a 5-7 year deal. Deferred money is already an old argument, yet those speaking against it don't seem to make any headway. It is foolish to backload a contract, paying more money for the declining years than the prime years. Crawford will make $21 million in the final year of his deal, when he will be thirty-six. There is little chance he will be a $21 million ballplayer at that age. But that is a problem for later. Which seems to be the common mentality for baseball execs, probably because the exec signing the deal will likely be employed elsewhere by that point. Like Jim Hendry. Like Theo Epstein. Like many others.
I feel no sorrow for owners having to fork out large sums of cash. At the end of the day, I'd rather the players have it than the real-estate tycoons and hedge fund runners. Especially since saving on players will NOT result in savings for fans. I don't feel sorry for small market teams, because they have certain advantages in this style of market. While it is certainly disappointing to see your team's best players leave for more money and equally frustrating to see your team's front office remain stagnant in the offseason due to pecuniary deficiencies, small market teams do tend to avoid the burdensome contracts that handcuff the big spenders.
There are the Yankees, who can spend all they want and do so just to show off. The A-Rod contract is such an example. But the bubble will burst for them as well. The next five years will be interesting in New York as A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira continue to decline while their bank accounts get fatter. They can't be benched or passed over because of the contracts they have (and their histories). They will shackle the Yankees at their respective positions. Just as the Cubs are stuck with Soriano in left, the Braves with Chipper at third, the Angels with Wells in the outfield, and on and on. When the bubble pops in New York, the splatter will be felt across the baseball nation. Things will change in free agency. It will be interesting to see who wrestles the most power when it does. Is the Player's Association as powerful as it once was? The Commissioner? Are the owners as conniving and savvy? It'll be alright though, because since 1869, the owners and executives and agents and televisions have all failed in their mission to destroy baseball.
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